Themic — Real-time macro theme tracker
Themic is a macro theme tracker that distills curated financial research into a live, source-cited ledger of the market narratives driving cross-asset positioning — built for discretionary futures traders. Each theme carries a running thesis, a dated development timeline with attributed sources, escalation / de-escalation scenarios, and the exposed instruments.
Live themes
- Iran US Hormuz Brent -8% intraday to $81.55, WTI sub-$80; Trump says Hormuz reopening 'may be close'; Turkey-Iraq pipeline extension adds 750kb/d offset.
- FED Warsh Overhaul Warsh floats cutting FOMC to 6 meetings/yr (Bloomberg); year hike-pricing eased to 29bp from 34bp; NFP consensus still unsettled into Fri.
- BoJ July Decision Yen emergingOp sized $70-80bn/3 days (ING); USD/JPY fresh low 155.23 then ~156.4; Bessent pledges repeat intervention + FIMA-repo funding (no UST sales).
- AI Tech Exceptionalism BI sizes Situational Awareness unwind ($45bn AUM, Citadel bailout); chips' worst month since 2008 vs S&P <2% off highs; Alibaba Qwen 3.8-Max HK +7%.
- Long End Stagflation Breakout 30Y at 19-yr high in a Fed-pat bear-steepener; WSJ/macro commentators converge on fiscal-dominance (debt 120% GDP) as the engine forcing the curve to do the tightening.
- Eurozone Growth Resilience emergingmacro commentators: DE/IT surprising up (~1.0%), FR the risk (~0.6%), US undershooting lofty expectations (~2.0%), Canada worst G10 (~0.4%) — feeds 'Dollar down' call.
- UK BoE Hike Path UK gilts rally further (2y -8bp, 10y -6.8bp); year-ahead hike pricing eased to 29bp from 34bp — market moving dovish vs LB Macro's under-priced-hike call.
- Gold Safe Haven Debate Independent research (Capital Wars) reframes gold as a China PBoC-liquidity/debt-deflation story, sees bullion basing near $4,000/oz — a new modest long lean.
- USD Debasement Trendline emergingDXY dipped <100 intraday (lowest since 17-Jun), settled 101.47; 10Y rolling DXY change negative (1985/2002 bear-market analogue); record EUR/USD spec short = squeeze room.
- RBA Oil Hike Repricing Westpac Q2 panel shows first quarterly spending decline in a year + rising savings — reinforces RBA-hikes-off-the-table read; credit accelerating but not hike-reviving.
- China Growth Pmi Contraction emergingChina July mfg PMI 49.2 / non-mfg 49.0 (43-month low) into contraction; ex-factory prices fell 2nd month — PPI peak may be past (ING); Politburo fiscal support 'light on deliverables'.
- Corn Crop Conditions decliningDeterioration broadened to soybeans (g/e -3pts to 63%) — first week corn AND soybeans both turned down together, widening row-crop yield-downside risk.
- US Trade War Reescalation decliningNew 10% blanket tariffs on 60 partners drew almost no market reaction; Bloomberg frames desensitization as masking a slow-burn higher-yield/cost-of-capital drag.
- USD Dollar Regime decliningCommodity-FX decoupling: CAD/AUD/BRL 2-3 std-dev undervalued vs oil/rate/VIX model (macro commentators); DXY softer as Gulf calm unwinds hawkish-Fed bid.
Theme archive
- ECB Hiking Stagnation dormant since 2026-07-26
- UK Political Risk Burnham dormant since 2026-07-26
- Japan Jgb Yield Cap dormant since 2026-07-26
- Ukraine Russia Escalation dormant since 2026-07-23
- Wheat Hrw Supply Shock dormant since 2026-07-21
- Equity Fragility Concentration dormant since 2026-07-21
- FED Forward Guidance Retreat dormant since 2026-07-21
- Climate Inflation Risk dormant since 2026-07-21
- Russia Baltic Shadow Fleet dormant since 2026-07-20
- US Regional Bank Stress dormant since 2026-07-19
- China Reflation PPI dormant since 2026-07-18
- Korea Won Bok dormant since 2026-07-18
- AI Ipo Honeymoon Fade dormant since 2026-07-16
- US Bank Stress Test Capital Return dormant since 2026-07-15
- CB Divergence Monitor dormant since 2026-07-15
- BoJ JPY Intervention dormant since 2026-07-14
- Food Fertilizer Squeeze dormant since 2026-07-14
- US China AI Export Gap dormant since 2026-07-11
- Europe Defense Buildout dormant since 2026-07-09
- France Political Fiscal Risk dormant since 2026-07-08
- ECB Tpi Periphery Put dormant since 2026-07-07
- US Growth Trajectory dormant since 2026-07-06
- Commodity Signal Divergence dormant since 2026-07-03
- Eurozone Disinflation Heatwave dormant since 2026-07-02
- Market Structure Fomo Bubble dormant since 2026-06-28
- US Recession Probability dormant since 2026-06-28
- Asian FX Undervaluation dormant since 2026-06-27
- Europe Heatwave Energy dormant since 2026-06-27
- Europe Deindustrialisation dormant since 2026-06-27
- Tariffs Forced Labor dormant since 2026-06-26
- Ipo Boom Cycle dormant since 2026-06-26
- Stock Bond Correlation Breakdown dormant since 2026-06-25
- US China Supply Chain Escalation dormant since 2026-06-25
- Venezuela Debt Restructuring dormant since 2026-06-24
- Running Hot Regime dormant since 2026-06-24
- Tokyo Financial Centre dormant since 2026-06-22
- EM Currency Stress dormant since 2026-06-19
- Global Tightening Cycle dormant since 2026-06-18
- Equity Risk Premium Inversion dormant since 2026-06-18
- AI Geopolitical Fragmentation dormant since 2026-06-18
- Risk Sentiment Regime dormant since 2026-06-17
- White Collar Labor Overhang dormant since 2026-06-16
- Cuba Geopolitical Tail dormant since 2026-06-14
- US Regional Security Portfolio dormant since 2026-06-13
- K Shaped US Consumer dormant since 2026-06-13
- US NATO Fragmentation dormant since 2026-06-12
- PPE Medical Supply Chain dormant since 2026-06-12
- Grains El Nino dormant since 2026-06-11
- UK Brexit Reengagement dormant since 2026-06-09
Methodology
Every trading day, Themic reads a curated set of macro research sources and updates a persistent ledger: it detects the narratives directing attention, tracks whether each is building, persisting or fading, records what changed with attributed sources, and maps the exposed futures. It never voices its own directional call — a view appears only when a named source is cited. Attention is corroborated against independent, market-wide signals, not just the ledger's own read.
Themic · a projection of the live ledger, updated daily.