Themic — Real-time macro theme tracker

Themic is a macro theme tracker that distills curated financial research into a live, source-cited ledger of the market narratives driving cross-asset positioning — built for discretionary futures traders. Each theme carries a running thesis, a dated development timeline with attributed sources, escalation / de-escalation scenarios, and the exposed instruments.

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Tracking 20 live themes · last updated 2026-09-17

Live themes

• FED Rate Path
  macro commentators flags widening Fed-vs-market gap: dots imply one more hike then decline, futures price ~50% Oct/near-certain Dec + two 2027; 2s+6bp flattening.
• Iran US Hormuz
  Saudi says Yanbu attacks stopped, flows largely restored 'within weeks'; WTI -1.8%, ample US crude/gasoline, distillates tighter.
• AI Tech Exceptionalism
  AI-power trade bifurcates: nuclear/SMR speculation cools (Holtec IPO postponed, NuScale cut to sell, X-Energy >50% off) vs profitable infra suppliers (Generac +30% on $2.4bn Amazon deal).
• Global Long End Selloff
  10y eases to 4.97-5.00% off the 5.04% high, long bonds bid — consolidation while implied terminal rises; BoE QT mechanics a fresh unpriced long-end tail.
• UK BoE Hike Path
  6-3 hold at 3.75% delivered; MPC lifts its own 2027 CPI path above 4% on energy, unveils QT-to-2034 (£20bn/yr); ING flags live Nov hike.
• Gold Safe Haven Debate
  GC +1.25% (silver +1.2%, copper +1.3%) on softer oil/dollar; inverse-oil leg drives fresh upside as DXY consolidates above 100.
• Diesel Refining Shock emerging
  Russia weighing extending its diesel export ban through October — product supply tightens as crude falls, widening the crack-vs-crude divergence.
• BoJ Yen Policy
  Yen best G10 last week (+1.7%) even as LB Macro calls Fri BoJ hike an 'accelerating' cycle; JGBs +1bp — structural-bull vs ING's near-term 156-157 bear unresolved.
• US Trade War Reescalation
  Congress approves bill letting Trump tariff Russian-oil buyers (latent CL lever); Trump threatens 'very serious' EU tariffs over EU-Canada associate-membership plan.
• K Shaped US Consumer
  US corporate profits a record 14.9% of GDP vs flat real household disposable income — Lloyds flags the profit-vs-consumer split as an unhealthy growth mix.
• China Growth Pmi Contraction
  macro commentators corroborates record-weak Aug core lending + flags outbound-travel curbs as capital-account stress; copper +5.5%m vs iron ore -2.0%m confirms demand split.
• US China G2 Summit emerging
  Global Watchtower frames Sep-24 Xi-Trump summit within a 'Four Pillars' China strategy as net de-risking; transmits via risk sentiment / 6A / EM FX.
• RBA Oil Hike Repricing
  AUD gave back ~1c to 0.7140-50 on oil/yields risk-off despite hawkish RBA; Westpac adds a ~$175bn AI/data-centre capex pipeline as a structural hawkish input; AUD/NZD 13yr high.
• France Political Fiscal Risk
  OAT-Bund spread near 1% — widest in a decade, French financing costs highest since 2008; framed as first spillover site if US long-end selloff persists.
• Corn Crop Conditions
  USDA Sept cut corn yield to 178.5 bu/ac (from 180.7), production 15.80bn bu; but Ag Economics finds Sept cuts have no predictive power for further October/January downside.
• Europe Sovereign Fiscal Stress
  LB Macro reads ECB hike as hawkish, prices +100bp more by end-Q1; sits unreconciled with ING's near-term EUR/USD 1.15 call. EUR -0.4% on hawkish-Fed DXY.
• Germany Ifo Afd Political Risk declining
  Merz 'undeterred' by intra-CDU defiance after AfD's Saxony-Anhalt win — political-risk persists into 20 Sep M-V/Berlin votes; no fresh Bund/EUR repricing.
• UK Political Risk Burnham declining
  UK July GDP +0.4% m/m (2nd beat, AI/data-centre-led); modestly GBP+ but gilt-specific stress deepens — 10y eyeing 5.5%, 30y near 6.0%.
• Equity Fragility Concentration declining
  AI-bubble scrutiny widens (Anthropic-IPO 'Manhattan Project' critique); Goldman/ING tie AI-capex borrowing (~1% global GDP) to the higher-yield channel pressuring the index.
• Private Credit Stress declining
  Private-credit stress a distinct new narrative: Blackstone BDC redemptions ~10%, Fitch defaults 6% (from 5%), $138bn buyout-debt pipeline, Blue Owl/Loparex mark-to-zero case.

Theme archive

Formerly tracked themes, preserved with their dated, source-cited ledgers.

• Global Liquidity Conditions dormant since 2026-09-08
• US Fiscal Deficit Supply dormant since 2026-09-05
• Eurozone Growth Resilience dormant since 2026-09-04
• Corn Belt Crop Stress dormant since 2026-09-02
• Ukraine Russia Escalation dormant since 2026-08-31
• UK GDP Growth Resilience dormant since 2026-08-28
• Korea Won Bok dormant since 2026-08-27
• EM Carry Trade Revival dormant since 2026-08-25
• G4 Growth Reacceleration dormant since 2026-08-24
• Europe Equity Rerating Vs US dormant since 2026-08-21
• FED Warsh Overhaul dormant since 2026-08-17
• China USD Funding Stress dormant since 2026-08-12
• Rhine Drought German Industry dormant since 2026-08-11
• UK Labour Market Turn dormant since 2026-08-10
• Wall Street Cyberattack dormant since 2026-08-06
• Long End Stagflation Breakout dormant since 2026-08-02
• USD Debasement Trendline dormant since 2026-08-02
• USD Dollar Regime dormant since 2026-07-27
• ECB Hiking Stagnation dormant since 2026-07-26
• Japan Jgb Yield Cap dormant since 2026-07-26
• Wheat Hrw Supply Shock dormant since 2026-07-21
• FED Forward Guidance Retreat dormant since 2026-07-21
• Climate Inflation Risk dormant since 2026-07-21
• Russia Baltic Shadow Fleet dormant since 2026-07-20
• US Regional Bank Stress dormant since 2026-07-19
• China Reflation PPI dormant since 2026-07-18
• AI Ipo Honeymoon Fade dormant since 2026-07-16
• US Bank Stress Test Capital Return dormant since 2026-07-15
• CB Divergence Monitor dormant since 2026-07-15
• BoJ JPY Intervention dormant since 2026-07-14
• Food Fertilizer Squeeze dormant since 2026-07-14
• US China AI Export Gap dormant since 2026-07-11
• Europe Defense Buildout dormant since 2026-07-09
• ECB Tpi Periphery Put dormant since 2026-07-07
• US Growth Trajectory dormant since 2026-07-06
• Commodity Signal Divergence dormant since 2026-07-03
• Eurozone Disinflation Heatwave dormant since 2026-07-02
• Market Structure Fomo Bubble dormant since 2026-06-28
• US Recession Probability dormant since 2026-06-28
• Asian FX Undervaluation dormant since 2026-06-27
• Europe Heatwave Energy dormant since 2026-06-27
• Europe Deindustrialisation dormant since 2026-06-27
• Tariffs Forced Labor dormant since 2026-06-26
• Ipo Boom Cycle dormant since 2026-06-26
• Stock Bond Correlation Breakdown dormant since 2026-06-25
• US China Supply Chain Escalation dormant since 2026-06-25
• Venezuela Debt Restructuring dormant since 2026-06-24
• Running Hot Regime dormant since 2026-06-24
• Tokyo Financial Centre dormant since 2026-06-22
• EM Currency Stress dormant since 2026-06-19
• Global Tightening Cycle dormant since 2026-06-18
• Equity Risk Premium Inversion dormant since 2026-06-18
• AI Geopolitical Fragmentation dormant since 2026-06-18
• Risk Sentiment Regime dormant since 2026-06-17
• White Collar Labor Overhang dormant since 2026-06-16
• Cuba Geopolitical Tail dormant since 2026-06-14
• US Regional Security Portfolio dormant since 2026-06-13
• US NATO Fragmentation dormant since 2026-06-12
• PPE Medical Supply Chain dormant since 2026-06-12
• Grains El Nino dormant since 2026-06-11
• UK Brexit Reengagement dormant since 2026-06-09

Methodology

Every trading day, Themic reads a curated set of macro research sources and updates a persistent ledger: it detects the narratives directing attention, tracks whether each is building, persisting or fading, records what changed with attributed sources, and maps the exposed futures. It never voices its own directional call — a view appears only when a named source is cited. Attention is corroborated against independent, market-wide signals, not just the ledger's own read.