US Recession Probability dormant
US Recession Probability is a macro theme formerly tracked by Themic. GS's growth-outlook call: post-ceasefire, the US left-tail has narrowed (12M recession odds 25%→15%) on lower-gas real-income gains, AI-capex support and labor resilience. The theme went dormant after 2026-06-28 and is no longer actively updated; its dated ledger is preserved below as an archive.
Thesis (as of 2026-06-28)
GS's growth-outlook call: post-ceasefire, the US left-tail has narrowed (12M recession odds 25%→15%) on lower-gas real-income gains, AI-capex support and labor resilience. Mechanism: a lower recession probability compresses the dovish/cut tail and supports risk, cross-cutting the hawkish-Warsh and disinflation-cut camps. Bears on SR3 (reduced left-tail), ES (growth-supportive), ZN (less duration-haven demand). Tied to the Iran-flow downside risk.
Development timeline
- Jun 27-28: GS recession-cut (25%→15%) corroborated by the growth-tracking picture but cross-cut by softening hard data — JPM cut Q2 GDP to 2.25% (from 3.0%); Q1 real personal consumption revised to 0.5% (lowest since Q1 2022); Amazon Prime Day household spend ~$89 (disappointing). Sets Jul 2 NFP (113-125k consensus) as the fundamental test of whether the Warsh hawkish pivot has a basis.Sources: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, independent channels
- Jun 26 NEW: GS Chief Economist Jan Goldman Sachs CUT the 12-month US recession probability from 25% to 15% (vs 20% pre-war; below the long-run norm), citing the US-Iran ceasefire extension. Three drivers: (1) real-income boost from lower gas prices; (2) AI boom supporting equity wealth and capex; (3) labor-market resilience exceeding pre-war expectations. H2-2026 sequential GDP nudged up to 2%. Reduces the near-term left-tail for SR3/front-end; ES broadly supportive though the tech selloff offsets. GS still flags slow Hormuz oil-flow recovery as the key downside risk.Sources: Goldman Sachs