FED Rate Path
FED Rate Path is a macro theme tracked by Themic. Near-term Fed-path repricing centred on Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech (Aug 28) and July Core PCE (Aug 26): Goldman/ING/Lloyds converge that market Sept-hike pricing is 'too hawkish' and the Fed likely holds well into 2027, despite July' As of 2026-09-12, its status is active with high conviction.
Thesis
Near-term Fed-path repricing centred on Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech (Aug 28) and July Core PCE (Aug 26): Goldman/ING/Lloyds converge that market Sept-hike pricing is 'too hawkish' and the Fed likely holds well into 2027, despite July's 3-way hawkish FOMC dissent. Mechanism: a dovish-relative-to-priced Fed lowers front-end rates and pressures the dollar; the Warsh comms-style/guidance question overlays event vol. Bears on SR3 (front-end), ZN (duration), DXY.
Development timeline
- Sep 12: past the hawkish-CPI/85-90%-hike entry, the structural yield debate got MORE contested overnight, not settled. Bloomberg now frames markets pricing TWO hikes before year-end. RenMac flags an internal-Fed tension: Gov Waller called productivity-adjusted wage growth 'broadly consistent' with returning to 2% (dovish) — sitting awkwardly beside Warsh's hawkish pivot driving next week's hike — and reads equities climbing through a hot CPI as a sign the market has MORE hikes left to price, not fewer. Sources: Bloomberg, RenMac.Sources: Bloomberg, independent channels
- Sep 11: fed funds futures hold ~64% for the Sep 16 FOMC (macro commentators) into today's Aug CPI — the 'policy-defining' swing print before the meeting. 2y carry spread ~90bp already signals 1+ Fed hikes priced. Fed now the comparatively-dovish laggard in a broad global tightening pulse (ECB delivered, BoJ expected today, RBA turning hawkish). Sources: macro commentators, ING.Sources: independent channels
- Sep 11 intraday: Sep-16 hike odds ticked up to ~67-70% (Lloyds, Handelsbanken, Business Insider) from ~64%, helped by Aug PPI upside (headline final demand 5.4% y/y from 4.8%, 4.1% m/m energy bounce, core still elevated) ahead of today's Aug CPI — the sole swing before blackout. Sources: Lloyds, Handelsbanken, Business Insider.Sources: Lloyds, Handelsbanken, Business Insider
- Sep 11 (3rd window): CPI RESOLVED HAWKISH — Aug core CPI 0.29% m/m (~2.4% y/y, hotter than 0.2% exp, nearly double the ~0.17% needed for target), headline 3.4%/0.4% in line; core PCE running even hotter at 3.3%. Fed-funds futures jumped to 85-90% for a 16 Sep hike (from ~67-70% pre-CPI), ~2.5 further hikes priced over the year. ING flipped to a hike specifically on Warsh's Jackson Hole pivot but frames it as a one-off 1997-Greenspan-style 'recalibration', not a new cycle — no FOMC member seen openly opposed, Bessent 'nervously watching' long yields, Trump giving Warsh an implicit pass. 2y carry spread 90bp (above the 75bp 'green-light' threshold). Sources: ING, Goldman Sachs, Lloyds, macro commentators.Sources: Goldman Sachs, Lloyds, independent channels
- Sep 10 (intraday): a fresh explicit hike-odds print — fed funds futures back to 64% for next week's FOMC (macro commentators), a step up from the ~60% CME read logged Sep 9. macro commentators frames the Fed as comparatively DOVISH vs other central banks now hiking (ECB delivered, RBA turned hawkish) and cautions the WSJ binary 0.2%-vs-0.3% core-CPI framing 'misses the forest for the trees' on the underlying trend Warsh wants. Fri Aug CPI the sole swing before blackout. Sources: independent channels.Sources: independent channels
- Sep 9: hike odds firm at ~60% (Business Insider: from 52% 'last Thursday'; ING's FX Daily prices ~15bp for Sept, consistent). 2y UST spiked to 4.39% post-NFP (Westpac); 10y 4.792% holding elevated. No new house call-shift past the five-house convergence already logged — the increment is the odds tick and the 2y level into Thu PPI / Fri CPI (headline seen 3.3-3.4% y/y), the last swing before blackout. Sources: Business Insider, ING, Westpac, macro commentators.Sources: Business Insider, independent channels
- Sep 8: the hawkish convergence broadened to five named houses (ING flipped call, Lloyds, Westpac, Handelsbanken, Bloomberg) all reading Aug NFP +162k (vs 55k median, U6 7.7% 14-mo low) as pushing Sep-16 hike odds to ~55-58%. Fri 11 Sep Aug CPI (headline 3.4%y/y/0.4%m/m, core 0.2%m/m) now the sole swing; Thu 10 Sep PPI ahead of it. ES forward P/E compressed to 19.4x (from 23x Oct peak) on higher yields. Sources: ING, Lloyds, Westpac, Handelsbanken, Bloomberg.Sources: Lloyds, Handelsbanken, Bloomberg, independent channels
- Sep 8 (intraday): CME FedWatch ticked to ~60% Sep-16 hike odds (from 52% 'last Thursday'), a step up from this morning's ~55-58% house convergence — Business Insider adds the CME read on top. BI frames Thu PPI, Fri CPI (the critical one) and Fri UMich as the three remaining inputs; 2y UST spiked on the jobs report then moderated. Sources: Business Insider, ING.Sources: Business Insider, independent channels
- Sep 8 (3rd window): independent research (macro commentators) corroborates the ~60% CME Sep-16 hike odds (and another by March) already logged, adding one fresh growth data point — Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 now tracks 4.7% real GDP after Friday's NFP, reinforcing the 'growth isn't slowing' narrative without shifting the Fed call. CPI Friday remains the sole swing. Sources: independent channels.Sources: independent channels
- Sep 7: the Friday hawkish reversal HELD through the weekend rather than fading — Westpac's Monday note confirms markets are still 'rebuilding expectations for further Fed tightening', UST yields moved higher (10y 4.784%), gold pulled back on the repricing. NEW angle firming: Trump 'intensified' public pressure on the Fed to cut over the weekend, adding a fresh Fed-independence input that (per macro commentators' logged framing) paradoxically raises hike odds by testing credibility. Debate still two-sided into Thu PPI, Fri CPI. Sources: Westpac, FT.Sources: FT, independent channels
- Sep 7 (2nd window): hike odds ratcheted higher on granular NFP internals — Handelsbanken puts implied 16-Sep hike odds at 55% (from 40% a week ago), ING's Turner at 58% and calls the Fed still under-priced given high energy prices. Lloyds adds internals not previously reported: July payrolls revised up to +21k (from -23k), participation 61.6%, household survey +569k, U6 at a 14-month low 7.7%, only financials (-11k)/information (-23k) declining, AHE steady 0.3%m/m/3.1%y/y — framed as reinforcing Warsh's hawkish JH tone over Waller's dovish framing. Eurozone HICP rose to 3.3% y/y Aug. ING sees DXY drifting 99.00-99.50 on the holiday-thinned session.Sources: Handelsbanken, Lloyds, independent channels
- Sep 7 (3rd window): a named bank formally joins the hawkish camp — ING THINK (FX Talking quarterly) moved its house view to favour a Sept Fed hike ('a very close call'), the first formal call-shift past the 55-58% odds logged this morning. ING cuts year-end EUR/USD to ~1.16 (from 1.18) on bearish curve-flattening dollar support, and — critically — frames it as a DELAY not a reversal: the cyclical dollar decline is pushed to spring 2027 (US inflation near 2%, pivot toward 3.25% normalisation), sooner only if US mid-term uncertainty or bond-market loss-of-control intervenes.Sources: independent channels
- Sep 6 (weekend): a THIRD dovish-relative voice this week and the fullest articulation of the yield-capping thesis — independent research (robinjbrooks, 'Will the Fed Hike?') sets his own 25bp Sep-16 hike odds at 40% vs market ~62% (SR3-implied), arguing neither the >3%-annualised PCE share (trending down) nor soft prime-age participation justifies a hike on fundamentals; the real driver would be capping long-end yields via an emerging Treasury-Fed accord (extending the Aug-19 buyback logic), and Trump's cut-urging posts paradoxically RAISE hike odds by testing Fed independence. Single-source weekend, extends Fri's wide convergence.Sources: independent channels
- Sep 6 (2nd window): a THIRD named source enters the hold camp, sharpening the two-sided setup against the morning's LB MACRO hawkish lean — independent research (macro commentators) argues no hike for 'the next couple quarters', citing Cleveland Fed nowcast (core CPI +0.2% m/m Aug & Sep -> 2.4%/2.3% y/y), restrictive-rate drag already visible in non-data-center construction and a 'frozen' housing market, and decelerating nominal wages. Quotes Waller's Thu Q&A ('what's the cost of waiting one meeting?') and frames the risk as entering a hiking CYCLE (bear-flattener raising economy-wide borrowing costs without slowing AI capex or war-price pressures). Now macro commentators (40%) + macro commentators (no hike) vs LB MACRO/market ~62% — genuinely contested into Thu PPI, Fri CPI.Sources: independent channels
- Sep 5 (weekend recap): the 162k NFP-driven reversal now consolidates into ~60-64% Sept-hike pricing (ING SOFR 16bp/~64%, Lloyds ~60%) heading INTO blackout with 11 Sep CPI (Lloyds/ING core +0.2%m/m/2.4%y, headline +0.4%m/m/3.3-3.4%y) as the SOLE remaining swing before Sept 16. NEW named house-view counterpoint crystallized: ING's James Smith publishes 'Why Kevin Warsh is wrong about inflation' — Warsh's hawkish JH chart is unweighted/tariff-distorted, trimmed-mean/6mth-annualised core PCE genuinely improving. Two further thought pieces feed the dovish-relative side (eightateeight flags Ottawa's 8 Sep tariff retaliation as an understated pass-through risk; ex-Fed VC Kohn: 'price stability' needs more than 2% given post-2020 scarring). Sources: ING, Lloyds, Bloomberg, WSJ, Business Insider, independent channels.Sources: Lloyds, Bloomberg, WSJ, Business Insider, independent channels
- Sep 5 (2nd window): past the morning's James Smith counterpoint, a SECOND named dovish-relative voice — independent research (robinjbrooks, 'Will the Fed Hike?') — puts Sept-16 hike odds at 40% vs market ~62%, arguing neither his higher-frequency PCE-basket (trending down) nor softening prime-age participation justify a hike. NEW framing angle: the REAL driver is capping long-term yields, not the dual mandate — Warsh's dovish Jul-29 performance triggered the bond sell-off that forced the Aug-19 buyback, and Trump's cut-urging posts RAISE hike odds by threatening Fed credibility. Frames it as an emerging 'Treasury-Fed accord' to contain yields.Sources: independent channels
- Sep 4: the week-long one-way hawkish drift CRACKED for the first time — Fed Governor Waller signalled support for holding if inflation keeps easing, briefly pushing implied Sept-hike odds 'noticeably below' 50% before a strong ISM services print (firmer new orders/prices paid, weaker employment leg ING reads as AI-related) clawed part back. ING (Rates Spark, Schroeder, 'A short sigh of relief') now frames Sept as 'a hike unless the data justify a pause' and quantifies the hold-bar precisely: NFP below 25k (possibly net job losses) AND core CPI below 0.2% m/m. Today's NFP (consensus +55k vs -23k July, UNR unchanged 4.1%) is the swing and the last input before FOMC blackout. Sources: ING, Westpac, FT.Sources: FT, independent channels
- Sep 4 (2nd window): the Waller-crack CONSOLIDATED into a clean 50/50 Sept-hike print (ING), down from ~70% earlier in the week (Handelsbanken) — confirming not extending the morning entry. Handelsbanken adds a seasonal wrinkle sharpening the NFP swing: since 1999 ~70% of August payroll prints have MISSED to the downside by ~30k on average, so today's +55k consensus (whisper +30k) could land as low as +25k — exactly ING's stated hold-trigger. WSJ flags US diesel at a fresh all-time high $5.85/gal (above 2022 record), a genuine inflation data point cutting the other way. Five sources converge (ING, Handelsbanken, Lloyds, WSJ, BI). NFP 13:30 BST the live trigger, then 11 Sep CPI (Lloyds: core 0.2% m/m). Sources: ING, Handelsbanken, Lloyds, WSJ, Business Insider.Sources: WSJ, Business Insider, Lloyds, Handelsbanken
- Sep 4 (3rd window): the Waller-crack REVERSED — Aug NFP smashed at 162k (>3x the 55k consensus/whisper) with +55k of upward revisions to the prior two months, UNR steady 4.1% (participation up to 61.6%), benign 3.1% y/y wages; private +127k (leisure/hosp +62k). ING's pricing model jumps to 16bp/64% (from 12.5bp/50% yesterday), Lloyds ~60% — the largest single swing of the window. ING now expects a hike, 'likely one-and-done'; James Smith's companion argues Warsh overstates inflation (trimmed-mean/market-based core PCE ~3.0-3.3% vs 3.3% headline) but concedes the bumper print removes the main route to a hold. 11 Sept CPI (Lloyds trims headline to 3.3%, core 0.2%mom/2.4%y) the last swing. Sources: ING, Lloyds.Sources: Lloyds, independent channels
- Sep 3: hike pricing consolidated ~70-75% (zhennanli reads ~70% vs prior ING ~75%) with Fri 4 Sep NFP explicitly named across sources as THE swing input, then 11 Sep CPI. ING reiterates the deficit/AI-supply real-yield framing behind the long-end move; no fresh escalation past the Sep-2 'burden of proof on the doves' / explicit bullish-DXY-baseline entries. Front-end pricing steady despite the session-end yield down-tick. Waller/Hammack/Goolsbee Fedspeak due today. Sources: ING, zhennanli, Westpac, Lloyds.Sources: Lloyds, independent channels
- Sep 3 (3rd window): ING's September Monthly ('Weathering the shocks') crystallizes an 'insurance hike' house call for 16 Sep — MORE MEASURED than SocGen's three-hike view logged this morning: the post-Warsh shift points to a hike over a hold but NOT the start of a series. ING frames the bond sell-off as the one shock 'with a transmission channel attached' ('stop the music and the level looks fair — the problem is the music is still blaring'). Cross-asset piece: Fed hawkishness + flatter curve keep supporting the dollar. No fresh level; Fri NFP the swing. Sources: ING.Sources: Societe Generale
- Sep 2: ING (Rates Spark, Schroeder) reframes the leg — 'burden of proof has switched to the doves' for 16 Sept FOMC; Tuesday's soft ISM/JOLTS failed to move front-end pricing (steady ~16bp/~64%) and the bar to shift it is now high. NEW structural claim: long-end yields now driven by deficit/supply + AI-growth expectations rather than near-term hike odds — Westpac flags 2y AND 10y UST at highest since Jan 2025 and the 30y back above its pre-Bessent-buyback level, ERASING that technical offset. US 10y 4.808%. Fri NFP then 11 Sep CPI the swings. Sources: ING, Westpac, Lloyds, FT.Sources: Lloyds, FT, independent channels
- Sep 2 (2nd window): ING (FX Daily, Turner) hardened its house view to an EXPLICIT bullish-dollar call — the 'new baseline' is the Fed HIKES in September (not just prices it), Warsh's speech reads as de facto forward guidance, and today's Beige Book + tomorrow's Waller should reinforce the hawkish tilt 'regardless of data surprises'. DXY target 100.10/20 (higher post-Waller). This moves ING from the ~75% probabilistic read to a stated hike baseline. ADP + Beige Book today, Waller tomorrow, Fri NFP the swings. Sources: ING, Bloomberg.Sources: Bloomberg, independent channels
- Sep 1: hike repricing ACCELERATED further past the Aug-31 ~62% entry — futures-implied 16 Sept odds ran 62% (Mon AM, macro commentators) to '3-to-1' (~75%) by Monday close (ING), the fastest single-window repricing this series has tracked. NEW MECHANISM: ING (Rates Spark, Garvey/Schroeder/Tukker) argues the 10y sell-off to 4.75-4.78% (Bloomberg: highest since Jan 2025) is a REAL-YIELD/issuance story — driven by Treasury supply + AI-productivity optimism Warsh cited at the G20 — NOT inflation fear (10Y inflation swap only 2.5%, low end of range; EZ 5Y5Y 2.15% anchored). ING targets 4.75-5% near-term; flags Bessent's expanded long-end buyback (first ops Sept 7) has tightened long swap spreads ~10%, a technical offset. Five voices converge (ING, macro commentators, Business Insider, eightateeight, WisdomTree/Siegel). 3-month avg payrolls pace slowed to ~20k; benchmark revision -79k gave little signal. Fri 4 Sep NFP the swing. Sources: ING, independent channels, Bloomberg.Sources: Bloomberg, independent channels
- Sep 1 (2nd window): the repricing WENT GLOBAL — Bloomberg's global government-bond yield gauge hit 3.72%, highest since 2008, up a 4th straight day; JGB 10y crossed 3% for first time since 1996 (30-yr high, ~doubled in a year), Bund 3.339% (highest since 2011), UK 10y +16bp to 5.22-5.234% (highest since 2008 crisis, post-holiday catch-up), Australian benchmark to 2011 levels; US 30y on its worst run since 2006. ING FX Daily brackets Sept pricing more precisely: 2y SOFR held >4.20% (>10bp above pre-speech), 16bp priced for Sept (~two-thirds odds of a full 25bp), 37bp by year-end — a more measured read than ING's own Monday-close '3-to-1' (~75%). Lloyds' close read of Warsh calls 'we have work to do' de facto forward guidance despite his stated aversion. ING data-week baseline: ISM mfg >55, JOLTS today, ADP 40k tomorrow, payrolls 'robust' 65k Fri (Lloyds median +60k, UNR 4.2%). Sources: ING, Lloyds, Bloomberg, Handelsbanken.Sources: Bloomberg, Lloyds, Handelsbanken
- Sep 1 (3rd window): first hard data since the ~75% repricing TESTED the thesis and failed to move it — Aug ISM manufacturing MISSED at 54.6 (55.6 prior, 55.2 cons, below Lloyds' >55 baseline), new orders slid to 53.7 (weakest since March), yet ING says 'nothing in this report to moderate' Sept pricing, held at 16bp of a possible 25bp; production strong 58.3, prices paid elevated 71.1. July JOLTS openings 7,271k but off a downward-revised June (7,182k from 7,359k); quits rate slipped to 1.9% — ING reads as sub-3% wage growth, hence a Sept hike 'needn't be followed by a series.' NEW dissent: macro commentators flags an outsized net-short bond-futures position as a classic contrarian 'pain trade' setup for a reversal, and questions why bonds sell off this hard if the Fed is genuinely hawkish (Greenspan-era 10y=nominal-GDP rule). First voice against the sell-off consensus. Sources: ING, independent channels.Sources: independent channels
- Aug 31: Westpac (new source, Morning Report) independently confirmed the mechanical repricing — Fed-funds-futures 16 Sept hike odds rose from 'around a third to more than a half' post-Warsh, converging the cross-source range on ~50-60%. Westpac forecasts Fri 4 Sep US payrolls +70k (vs consensus +55k, prior -23k) as the swing input. 10y ~4.71% overnight, essentially flat to the pre-Warsh 4.68% anchor — post-speech curve-flattening has stalled. Sources: Westpac, FT.Sources: FT, independent channels
- Aug 31 (2nd window): the hawkish read got a fresh COUNTER-cut past the AM Westpac 'a third to more than half' entry — the annual US payrolls benchmark revision came in WEAKER than flagged (payroll growth revised down 79k in the year to March 2026, private -178k of that per Westpac), a soft labour signal immediately overshadowed by Warsh. Hike odds narrowed toward the top of range (~57% Business Insider / ~60% Westpac). NEW frictions: WSJ notes short-end yields PARING back Friday's +12bp 2y spike this morning, and Bloomberg reports bond investors voicing OPEN SKEPTICISM the hike actually materializes. July core PCE in line (+0.2% m/m). Hawkish read now actively contested, not confirmed.Sources: Business Insider, WSJ, Bloomberg, independent channels
- Aug 31 (3rd window): hike odds firmed FURTHER to ~62% per futures (macro commentators, new source) — from the ~57-60% carried this morning and ~32% pre-Warsh — with a second hike in January now 'highly probable' and ~25% odds of a further hike by next summer. Richmond Fed's Barkin added a mildly hawkish line ('inflation isn't going the wrong way so much as it isn't in the right place'). eightateeight (new source) surfaced Warsh's own inflation-BREADTH stats for the first time: 54% of PCE components running >3% y/y (12m), 49% annualised over 6m — Warsh cited but declined to call inflation 'broad', which the piece flags as an unforced omission leaving the FOMC reaction function unexplained. Curve mechanics (2y +12bp, 10y +4bp, 30y +1bp Friday bear-flattener) match prior figures. Sources: independent channels, Bloomberg.Sources: Bloomberg, independent channels
- Aug 30: fuller weekend pushback on Friday's net-hawkish read — macro commentators (Substack) and Capital Wars (Substack) INDEPENDENTLY frame the hawkish tone as long-yield ANCHORING (containing a repeat of the post-Jul-29 sell-off that forced Treasury's buyback), NOT a hike signal; macro commentators shows 30y-2y slope back near pre-Jul-29 levels as proof containment worked, calls the emerging 'Treasury-Fed accord' the real story, sees weaker dollar + higher precious metals as the medium-term outcome. macro commentators pegs Sept-hike odds 60% (from 40% pre-speech) vs Friday's ING 34%->54% — same direction, bigger magnitude. FT confirms FOMC meets Sept 15-16, first hard test. Sources: independent channels, FT.Sources: FT, independent channels
- Aug 30 (3rd window): a second independent source now attaches hard numbers to the net-hawkish Warsh read past the Friday ING 34%->54% / weekend Substack anchoring-pushback entries — LB Macro (new source) calls the keynote a 'hawkish call to action' vindicating its long-held Sept-hike call, market odds 30%->60%; Warsh's hawkishness + Bessent buybacks flattened the US curve back to pre-July-FOMC levels, 2Y +10bps Friday alone. Corroborates the hike-repricing camp (converging on 60% odds) rather than the anchoring-pushback read. US Aug payrolls (Fri 4 Sep, LB Macro expects rebound from July's -23k) the next hard test. Sources: independent channels.Sources: independent channels
- Aug 29: Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote (unresolved at yesterday's close) landed NET HAWKISH — inflation 'not meaningfully improving', 2% PCE target 'firm and fixed', 'price stability is not self-executing'; cited strong AI capex, low credit spreads, buoyant loan issuance and stable labour as evidence policy isn't restrictive; NO comment on deficit, buybacks or dollar. Market validated: ING (Garvey) reads it as endorsing hawkish-leaning pricing — 2y up to 4.3% (carry spread to funds >66bp vs ~75bp typical ahead of a hike), 30y eased, 10y mixed, SEPT FOMC HIKE ODDS 34%->54% intraday (day's biggest single repricing). Resolves the 'too-hawkish market pricing' debate AGAINST the Goldman/ING/Lloyds hold-into-2027 house calls. Sources: ING, Bloomberg.Sources: Bloomberg, independent channels
- Aug 29 (2nd window): pushback on this morning's net-hawkish read — two independent Substack voices argue Warsh was LESS hawkish than priced. One frames the hawkish tone as long-yield ANCHORING (containing a repeat of the post-Jul-29 sell-off that forced Treasury's buyback), not a hike signal, showing the 30y-2y slope back near pre-Jul-29 levels as proof containment worked; pegs Sept-hike odds at 60% (from 40% pre-speech) — same directional jump as this morning's ING 34%->54% but argues markets are misreading. The other calls the speech 'low-key'/'little fresh guidance.' FT (new source) carried the verbatim Warsh line ('confident underlying inflation is moving to our objective... otherwise we have work to do') and CONFIRMED the next catalyst date: FOMC Sept 15-16 (supersedes the ~mid-Sep placeholder).Sources: FT, independent channels
- Aug 27: July PCE landed and kept year-end-hike pricing LIVE past the Aug-25 ~40%-odds entry — core in line (0.2% m/m/3.3% y/y) but headline a touch FIRM (0.2%/3.7%), nudging yields and the dollar higher into the print (Westpac). Soft-consumer counterweight: real spending flat (0.0% m/m) despite +0.4% real disposable income (savings rate up to 3% from 2.6%), and Conference Board consumer confidence fell to a seven-month low 89.4 with 12m inflation expectations rising to 5.8% from 5.6% — a backdrop Westpac reads as arguing against an aggressive Fed pivot. Warsh's Fri keynote called 'the ultimate test' (markets want a steer on the path back to target; he has so far avoided guiding). Aug 28 preliminary benchmark payrolls revision (year to March) an added swing. Sources: Westpac, ING, FT.Sources: FT, independent channels
- Aug 27 (2nd window): Sept-hike pricing collapsed further past the AM live-year-end-hike entry — ING now has just 9bp priced for September (vs ~40% implied earlier this week); Lloyds' second GDP read shows real consumer spending revised UP to 3.4% (from 3.2%) on healthcare, but core PCE unrounded 0.246% m/m driven by financial-services fees +1.17%. WSJ (Back) frames Warsh's Friday keynote as the decisive event able to send yields either way — deficit ~6% of GDP with no forward guidance. Aug 28 preliminary benchmark payrolls revision an added swing. Sources: ING, Lloyds, WSJ.Sources: Lloyds, WSJ, independent channels
- Aug 26 (2nd window): ING (Knightley) crystallised the house-vs-market split into Warsh Friday past the AM live-year-end-hike-pricing entry — market still prices a 25bp hike before year-end vs ING's explicit call for stable Fed funds well into 2027; Q2 GDP confirmed unrevised 1.5% ann alongside the in-line-core/firm-headline PCE. Warsh Fri the flashpoint.Sources: independent channels
- Aug 25: Sept-hike odds now ~40% (down from >70% early August) but the debate stays HAWKISH — a hike, not a cut, remains the question. Warsh's Fri Aug 28 keynote ('Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy') framed as the week's key risk with low expectations for explicit guidance but potential for a hawkish inflation-credibility tone; BoE's SONIA curve separately fully prices a year-end hike. July core PCE Wed Aug 26 the swing print into it. Sources: ING, Westpac, Lloyds, WSJ.Sources: Lloyds, WSJ, independent channels
- Aug 24: jwsmacro deep-dive sharpened the dovish counter into Warsh Friday past the Aug-22 core-PCE-outlier entry — markets now price only ~10bp for September and ~one full hike for the year. Strongest dovish arguments laid out: core PCE momentum cooled (0.13% June, ~0.2% July est.) with ~20bp of July's print in the BEA 'Portfolio Management' category due a September downward revision; ECI 3.6% not generating wage-push; the three July hawkish dissenters (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) rotate OFF the vote in Jan-2027, replaced by more dovish regional presidents. Sept 11 CPI (days before FOMC) is the swing print. Sources: jwsmacro, FT, Bloomberg, lbmacro.Sources: FT, Bloomberg, independent channels
- Aug 24 (2nd window): Sept-hike odds slid further past the AM jwsmacro '~10bp' entry — ING now prices ~10bp for September = ~40% implied hike probability, DOWN FROM >70% at the start of August, as recent benign CPI/PPI prints take pressure off Warsh's Friday keynote. Sources: ING, Handelsbanken.Sources: Handelsbanken
- Aug 22: a live INFLATION-MEASUREMENT debate crystallised as the pivot into Warsh's speech past the Aug-21 crystallisation entry — independent research (eightateeight, citing PIMCO): core PCE at 3.3% looks like an OUTLIER vs trimmed-mean PCE 2.2% and other underlying gauges, largely because portfolio-management services in the PCE basket track equities not wages; a pending BEA methodology change should mechanically pull core PCE DOWN over coming months — handing the Fed more easing room than headline core-PCE suggests. Warsh's Jackson Hole speech (Fri Aug 28, 15:00 BST) framed as how the Fed resolves the 3.3%-vs-2.2% tension. GS (Goldman Sachs) reaffirms Sept hike 'very unlikely', hold through H2. Sources: independent channels, Lloyds, Goldman Sachs.Sources: Lloyds, Goldman Sachs, independent channels
- Aug 21 NEW: a distinct near-term Fed-path/Jackson-Hole theme crystallises on three convergent sources ahead of the Aug 27-29 symposium — Goldman (Goldman Sachs) forecasts Fed on hold through H2 2026 (real GDP +2.1% FY), a September hike 'very unlikely', and calls current market pricing 'too hawkish' DESPITE July's 3-way hawkish dissent. Lloyds and ING both flag Warsh's first major Jackson Hole speech Fri Aug 28 (~15:00 BST) as the key catalyst, with ING (Knightley) expecting the Fed to hold well into 2027. Both converge on July Core PCE (Wed Aug 26): ING +0.2% m/m / 3.3% y/y; Lloyds headline easing to 3.6% from 3.7%, core unchanged 3.3%. Successor/near-term expression distinct from the now-declining fed-warsh-overhaul rate-path theme. Bears on SR3 (dovish repricing), ZN/DXY (event-vol into PCE + Warsh).Sources: Goldman Sachs, Lloyds, independent channels
Upcoming catalysts
- September FOMC — hold 'guaranteed' (Hatzius: Sept hike 'very unlikely')
- FOMC rate decision — now a coin-toss per ING (54% hike-probability post-Warsh)
- FOMC meeting — decision Sept 16; first test of whether the hawkish tone becomes an actual hike (FT-confirmed date)
Part of the Themic macro theme ledger · first detected 2026-08-21 ·
last updated 2026-09-12 · live view →