FED Rate Path

FED Rate Path is a macro theme tracked by Themic. Near-term Fed-path repricing centred on Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech (Aug 28) and July Core PCE (Aug 26): Goldman/ING/Lloyds converge that market Sept-hike pricing is 'too hawkish' and the Fed likely holds well into 2027, despite July' As of 2026-11-01, its status is active with high conviction.

Exposed instruments: SR3, ZN, DXY, GC, ES

Thesis

Near-term Fed-path repricing centred on Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech (Aug 28) and July Core PCE (Aug 26): Goldman/ING/Lloyds converge that market Sept-hike pricing is 'too hawkish' and the Fed likely holds well into 2027, despite July's 3-way hawkish FOMC dissent. Mechanism: a dovish-relative-to-priced Fed lowers front-end rates and pressures the dollar; the Warsh comms-style/guidance question overlays event vol. Bears on SR3 (front-end), ZN (duration), DXY.

Development timeline

• 2026-11-01 Nov 1: LB MACRO Weekly adds a hawkish counter-pole to Friday's Goldman 'fewer-hikes' leg — calls the post-hold dovish reaction (short yields -a few bp) too complacent, puts Dec Fed-hike odds at 73% (too LOW in their view) and terminal rates ABOVE pricing unless risk assets fall enough to tighten conditions themselves. SR3 lean: short-end should reprice higher.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-31 Oct 31: Capital Wars adds a liquidity frame past the Oct-30 Goldman-fewer-hikes entry — macro commentators calls Warsh's approach 'Treasury QE' / a 'Third Way': global liquidity rolling over WITHOUT overt tightening, policy preserving Treasury-market function but LESS supportive of general asset-price liquidity, real economy absorbing the liquidity. Goldman (Goldman Sachs) reiterated: 2.7% growth 2026 AND 2027, risks to the downside, sustained higher yields cost 0.6% global GDP. Kaplan: Fed can wait. Dec hike ~70% CME / ~80% ING, one 2027 hike priced. ING/Lloyds: hike pricing only vulnerable to a very weak Fri 6 Nov payrolls (ING ~+75k, UNR 4.2%); JOLTS Tue, ADP+ISM services+refunding Wed.
  Sources: Goldman Sachs, Lloyds, independent channels
• 2026-10-31 Oct 31 intraday: a single-source hawkish-tilt read of Wed's hold past the Oct-31 05:24 Capital-Wars-liquidity entry — Macro Mornings counts 2 dissents, 1 DELETED sentence and the 'solid'->'strong' upgrade and argues the market is UNDER-pricing the hawkish signal despite a Dec hike + ~75bp through Sep-2027 already priced. Data relayed: Sep core CPI +0.3% m/m (vs +0.2% exp), core 2.6% y/y (from 2.4%), headline 3.7%; payrolls +29k with -60k revisions, UNR 4.2%; Oct hike odds fell 58-70%->low on Williams 'no urgency' (28 Sep) + Warsh not pushing back. Warsh calendar overhaul framed as raising per-meeting vol.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-30 Oct 30: a dissenting FRAMING of the hawkish hold lands past the Oct-29 soft-GDP-composition entry — independent research argues Warsh is NEITHER hawk nor dove but running yield-curve management with Treasury (a 'Treasury-Fed accord'): French safe-haven flows into USTs flattened the curve and ENABLED this week's dovish tone. Reaction detail: 10y made a 'decisive gap' lower off 5.00% on the AI equity sell-off (ING: back-end flow-driven, 7y auction clean/no tail, does NOT change higher-yield view). Process firmed: 7 rate-meetings in 2027, 6 from 2028, one meeting/yr no decision-or-statement. Dec hike ~21bp / >80% priced to 4.00-4.25%.
  Sources: Lloyds, Bloomberg, independent channels
• 2026-10-30 Oct 30: the Fed blackout ENDS with Barkin/Daly/Musalem speaking today past the Oct-30 05:25 Treasury-Fed-accord framing — the December-hike repricing (Q3 GDP 3.4%, core PCE +0.3% m/m) stands as the offset to the AI-rout haven bid in USTs. macro commentators 'Is Kevin Warsh a Dove or a Hawk?' (05:01 UTC, pre-window) reprises the ambiguity. Next week heavy: ISM mfg Mon, JOLTS/midterms Tue, ADP + quarterly refunding Wed, jobless claims Thu, BLS employment Fri.
  Sources: Lloyds, WSJ, independent channels
• 2026-10-30 Oct 30 intraday: a GROWTH-DOVISH counter-leg lands past the Treasury-Fed-accord framing — Goldman (Goldman Sachs): 'central banks will deliver FEWER hikes than currently priced', expects bond yields to pull back. Dec Fed-hike odds split by source (CME ~70% macro commentators / ING 80%), only ONE further 2027 hike priced (vs multiple a few weeks ago). macro commentators: UST yields -10bp Thu / -2bp today back to mid-Sep levels, would not be surprised by a Dec HOLD unless inflation very strong; Warsh ending forward guidance = more vol. Next-week calendar firmed: Fri 6 Nov Oct jobs (ING ~+75k, UNR 4.2% — only a very soft/negative print moves Dec); FOMC Wed 9 Dec ~80% hike.
  Sources: Goldman Sachs, independent channels
• 2026-10-29 Oct 28 (post-FOMC): the Fed HELD 3.75-4.00% on a 10-2 vote past the Oct-28 10y-magnet entry — Cook AND Hammack dissented FOR a 25bp hike (ING had expected Kashkari/Logan, not Cook, making Cook a surprise). Statement upgraded activity 'solid'->'expanding at a strong pace', inflation 'remains elevated'; Warsh gave NO guidance, refused to explain the hold, said the 'medicine' is working and 2% is non-negotiable, then late said the goal isn't to 'throw sand in the gears'/put people out of work. Reaction: curve steepened both ends (2y -3bp, 10y +3bp ~5.00% after first rising then dropping), inflation expectations ROSE post-presser (Bloomberg: 'the Fed's fault'); Dec hike ~75% priced (BI), funds peak ~4.6%/12m. ING/Westpac/Bloomberg/Handelsbanken converge on a Dec hike base case; SPLIT on tone — Bloomberg/Ielpo read 'sand in the gears' as the Fed won't engineer a slowdown, ING reads the presser as keeping the 10y on course for 5.25%. ING: hike to 4.00-4.25% Dec then pause and reverse by Dec-2027. Process change: from autumn-2027 one FOMC/yr strategy-only, two from 2028 (6 rate-vote meetings/yr). PCE+GDP today the next test; Warsh sees Nov CPI before Dec.
  Sources: Bloomberg, Handelsbanken, independent channels
• 2026-10-29 Oct 29: the post-FOMC reaction read MILD-DOVISH past the Oct-28 10-2-hold entry — ING/Lloyds frame the move (USD 2y swap -8bp, US 10y -6bp to 4.98%) as absence-of-guidance, NOT a softer stance. Warsh: discussion 'focused mainly on price stability', 'unwilling and unable' to call financial conditions tight; growth upgraded to 'strong' from 'solid'. Dec 25bp hike priced >80% (Lloyds) / 21bp (ING), front-end hike risk intact, USD supported. eightateeight relays critical presser reception (Sahm 'Meh', others 'Kabuki', refusal of follow-ups; Timiraos: Fed has credibility to wait six weeks). Process: 6 rate-decisions/yr by 2028, 7 in 2027 (one 2027 meeting no decision/statement). Today's Q3 GDP (ING 3.4% vs 3.2% cons) + Sep core PCE (0.3% m/m exp) the next test.
  Sources: Lloyds, Handelsbanken, Bloomberg, FT, independent channels
• 2026-10-29 Oct 29 data: Q3 GDP 3.4% ann. (cons 3.2%) but composition SOFT under the hood past the Oct-29 mild-dovish-reaction entry — business investment +19.4% (tech/data-centre capex) fully cancelled by goods imports +26.4% (net trade -3.3pp); consumer spending +3.8% but real Sept spending FLAT m/m, real disposable income -0.3% m/m. Sept PCE 0.3% m/m / 3.1% y/y as expected (ING: 0.32% m/m vs 0.17% needed for 2%). ING (Knightley) now has a 25bp DECEMBER hike as BASE CASE while flagging 4Q GDP nearer 2% (momentum cooling caps the upside to hike pricing). macro commentators reads Cook's hawkish dissent as political; curve steepened (2y down, 10y up ~5.0%, -2bp this morning), DXY slightly lower.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-28 Oct 28 (FOMC day): the decision collapses to the 10y-anchor mechanics past the Oct-27 hawkish-presser-asymmetry entry — ING (Garvey/Pesole): US 10y 'clinging' to 4.99% with 5% a MAGNET; a super-dovish Warsh validates sub-5%, super-hawkish pulls it back above, most likely in between. Hold ~93% priced (~7% hike, Bloomberg/Westpac); ING keeps the December-hike base case and flags the balance-sheet-shrink plan not before year-end. Zandi (via BI): the bond market is doing the Fed's work. Core PCE + Q3 GDP advance land Thu (post-FOMC).
  Sources: Bloomberg, Business Insider, independent channels
• 2026-10-28 Oct 28 (FOMC day) intraday: the 10y broke ABOVE 5% pre-decision (WSJ 5.01, +14bp; FT 5.020) past the Oct-28 05:34 10y-magnet entry. Handelsbanken: FOUR FOMC members project a further 50bp of hikes by year-end (new detail). BI puts December hike pricing at ~75%. Lloyds: Warsh unlikely to push back on hike expectations given Q3 GDP >3% SAAR and Sep PCE >3.5% y/y (both Thu); watch number of hawkish dissents (July repeat). Not a dot-plot meeting. WSJ (Jakab): attention shifts to MSFT/GOOGL as Fed unlikely to make headlines this close to midterms.
  Sources: Handelsbanken, Lloyds, Business Insider, WSJ, FT
• 2026-10-27 Oct 27: the hawkish-presser asymmetry sharpens past the Oct-26 'pause-before-Dec'/hawkish-vs-dovish-split entry — BofA's macro commentators ('How Will Markets Trade the Fed?'): presser tone matters more than the decision, Warsh can't sound hawkish without inviting 'why not hike', a hold + neutral tone likely, market 'too docile' vs the July/Aug bear-steepener episode. BofA (Cabana): the troika (Warsh/Williams/Jefferson) guiding to a patient quarterly cadence DESPITE broadening CPI/PPI; Dudley expects a Dec hike; Dutta: core PCE annualised >4% in Sep, Fed forecasts 'make-believe', upward inflation-revision risk. Risk asymmetric to a hawkish presser/SEP, not a rate move. Core PCE + Q3 GDP advance land Thu (post-FOMC).
  Sources: BofA, Bloomberg, independent channels
• 2026-10-27 Oct 27 intraday: the USD-regime angle sharpened past the Oct-27 05:24 hawkish-presser-asymmetry entry — ING: dollar buying is BACK ahead of FOMC, with Warsh's inflation-commitment rhetoric seen as a STRUCTURAL FLOOR for USD; pause-then-December-hike base case reiterated. Lloyds: Treasuries and oil have DECOUPLED, with a small flight-to-quality bid last week as tighter real rates bite on AI froth / weak sovereigns. Zandi (via BI) counter: the bond market is doing the Fed's job, no more hikes needed. Handelsbanken global-macro: 'rate hikes drawing closer'. EUR/USD low-1.11s testing the 14 Oct 1.1113 low on the FOMC-bid dollar.
  Sources: Lloyds, independent channels
• 2026-10-26 Oct 26 (Mon): FT firms the wait-for-midterms base case + two fresh analytical frames past the Oct-24 ING-base-case/USD-pivot entry — FT: the Fed likely holds Wed 28 and WAITS until AFTER the midterms before hiking again, DESPITE worsening US inflation (Bloomberg: Sept CPI showed a 'disquieting broad rise'). Oct hike odds swung on data then faded on Williams and Warsh (at the IMF) 'no rush'. Kaletsky (Gavekal, via Bloomberg): the Fed DRIVES the bond market because trend-following funds focus on the policy rate — the 10y and the 1y-ahead fed-funds forecast move together. Pressure on Warsh to re-guide the market is growing after he dropped forward guidance; rising yields alarm the administration (Bessent's buyback move). Westpac: oil adding to inflation worries keeps the Dec hike live.
  Sources: FT, Bloomberg, independent channels
• 2026-10-26 Oct 26 (Mon) intraday: ING/Westpac titles crystallise the 'pause-before-Dec' read past the morning FT-wait-for-midterms entry — ING previews FOMC Wed as 'a pause before a December hike'; Westpac: market sees December as the next hike. macro commentators thought piece ('How Fed QE Went Bad') adds a structural leg: each QE round bigger, QT never fully reverses, so the Fed warehouses Treasuries and 'shadow yields' sit well above observed; the expectation the Fed caps yields in a shock removes the incentive for fiscal repair, and an AI-bubble burst would bring QE back. Core PCE + Q3 GDP advance land Thu (post-FOMC).
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-26 Oct 26 (Mon) intraday: a hawkish-vs-dovish Dec SPLIT crystallises past the morning 'pause-before-Dec'/FT-wait-for-midterms entry — LB Macro ('The Contamination of Risky Assets') expects the Fed, ECB and BoJ to all HOLD in Oct and HIKE in Dec, citing G4 PMIs showing robust growth and firm prices; macro commentators reads futures <10% hike odds this week (from ~2/3 a month ago) and Fed speakers' 'no hurry' as the Dec hike risk FADING, expecting an uneventful Wed with no guidance from Warsh. Hold this week is largely priced; Dec is the SR3/ZN swing.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-24 Oct 24 (Sat): the preview firms + USD-regime-pivot framing past the Fri ING base-case entry — RenMac and Lloyds join ING on HOLD Wed 28 + Dec hike; the bar to price OUT the Dec hike is high (ING), Sept core CPI +0.3% keeps it live, hawkish dissents possible (Hammack/Kashkari/Logan). ING: the FOMC sets the dollar tone for 4-6 weeks (DXY +4% Sep→early-Oct now consolidating) — so next week's decision is the FX regime pivot; risk-off tech selloff the main USD downside catalyst. BoC Wed 28 a close call (ING leans hold).
  Sources: Lloyds, independent channels
• 2026-10-23 Oct 23 (Fri): haven flows remove hike pressure past the Oct-22 ~3-hikes/growth-fear-repricing entry — risk-off/tech selloff + sub-5% UST 10y lessens pressure on the Fed to hike 28 Oct; macro commentators reiterates only ~4bp priced for 28 Oct (vs ~10bp before 29 Jul), 'no realistic scenario' for a hike (a $125 Brent spike tightens via France/AI debt; only an Iran peace deal could prompt one). ING (Garvey) would not load up on duration — expects UST back above 5% on inflation/deficits/AI capex/midterm risk. macro commentators flags post-election certification/Insurrection Act risk if Democrats win.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-23 Oct 23 (Fri): macro commentators reaffirms no-hike into 28 Oct past the morning haven-flows/~4bp-priced entry — macro commentators: 'no realistic scenario' for a hike on 28 Oct; his French-selloff circuit-breaker is LOWER OIL, achievable if the US does more against IRGC gunboats in Hormuz. Lloyds flags a breakeven/Fed disconnect (TIPS liquidity-premium drag may overstate inflation anchoring). No incremental pricing shift; sub-5% UST and risk-off keep hike pressure off.
  Sources: Lloyds, independent channels
• 2026-10-23 Oct 23 (Fri) intraday: ING preview makes the base case explicit past the morning haven-flows/~4bp-priced entry — HOLD 28 Oct, +25bp in Dec (to 4.00-4.25%), then a prolonged pause to Dec-2027 with the Dec-26 hike REVERSED by end-2027. Fed SEP: 4 members project 50bp of hikes by year-end; Hammack/Kashkari/Logan (July hike dissenters) may dissent again. Sept core CPI +0.3% m/m briefly put an Oct hike >50% before Jefferson/Bowman/Waller 'no rush' and Warsh declining to talk up action in Bangkok faded it. ING: Treasuries to resume the climb, USD to hold September gains; risk-off tech selloff the main USD downside catalyst.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-22 Oct 22 (Thu): the 2018-analogue framing added past the Oct-21 housing-leg/two-sided-into-28-Oct entry — Bloomberg ('Brace for a midterm market mess') notes the market still prices ~3 more hikes by mid-2027 and draws the 2018 analogue (sideways/vol 3-6 months then buy-the-dip IF the Fed pivots); flags Pictet's tax-rise/AI-regulation risk if the populist left wins (California Prop 40 billionaire tax) and SocGen's hyperscaler-CDS-must-peak-first caution. Warsh wants balance-sheet shrink. US 10y 5.107% (-3.9bp). No pricing shift beyond the firmed ~3-hikes read; macro commentators calls next week's FOMC a non-event.
  Sources: Bloomberg, independent channels
• 2026-10-22 Oct 22 (Thu) intraday: the growth-fear repricing gets quantified past the morning 2018-analogue/~3-hikes entry — ING (Turner): the 10y-fwd 1M USD OIS fell to 4.85% from 5.17% in Sept, the long end now pricing GROWTH fear over inflation ('higher energy no longer = higher rates forever'); still 'rock-solid' ~+75bp further Fed tightening priced, front end anchored until tech cracks. macro commentators ('What Makes the Fed Hike Next Week?'): only ~4bp priced for 28 Oct (vs ~10bp before 29 Jul), 'no realistic scenario' for a hike, the unanimous Sept hike put credibility fears to rest so a hold is now 'costless'. ING: a Democratic midterm sweep could slow/reverse deregulation, feeding defensive rotation. US 10y 5.07% (-1.15bp), gold 4,107 falling alongside risk-off.
  Sources: WSJ, independent channels
• 2026-10-21 Oct 21 (Wed): the hawkish-hike case gains a housing leg and near-term timing past the Oct-20 'virtual-certainty-Dec / FOMC-28-Oct' entry — BI says the Fed could hike 'as soon as next week'; Bloomberg/Capital Economics/Oxford lean hike-over-cut, citing a frozen housing market as NOT a cut trigger: 30y mortgages ~7.5% (Bankrate), US pending home sales at a record low, NAHB 29 (lowest since 2012). Fed in blackout, no speakers. Reinforces the hawkish minority against the AI-stress-cut narrative.
  Sources: Bloomberg
• 2026-10-21 Oct 21 (Wed) intraday: the AI-wobble dovish offset gets named past the morning housing-leg/hike-'as-soon-as-next-week' entry — ING says the AI-equity stress and an oil selloff have LESSENED front-end hawkish conviction and INCREASED dovish flexibility on non-data shocks (USD 2y OIS/SOFR channel), even as oil/inflation argue higher-for-longer. Two-sided into the 28-Oct FOMC: hot CPI/energy vs equity/credit/housing softness. Fed in blackout.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-20 Oct 20 (Tue): FOMC date FIRMS to Wed 28 Oct past the Oct-19 macro commentators 'virtual certainty Dec' entry (prior sources left it unconfirmed); Nov hike ~15% priced, Dec near-certain. LB Macro (Sun) reaffirms 'tightening cycle has only just begun'. Handelsbanken: 'rate hikes drawing closer' globally. No incremental pricing shift beyond the firmed date and the hawkish-minority reaffirmation; Fed in blackout, no speakers.
  Sources: Handelsbanken, independent channels
• 2026-10-19 Oct 19 (Mon): Westpac quantifies the under-priced-hike read past the Oct-18 LB-Macro counter entry — only a token 4bp of Oct tightening priced, with a quarterly hike profile embedded Dec-26 to Jun-27; UST 2y -8bp and 10y -18bp on the week framed as a flight-to-quality bid NOT backed by any policy shift. Sep US CPI a hot 'sell first' print but upside concentrated (esp. shelter). LB Macro preview reaffirms AI-equity/French-bond scares are premature reasons to expect a Fed hold. Net: hawkish minority views the yield rally as reversible; FOMC late Oct (date unconfirmed in sources).
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-19 Oct 19 (Mon) intraday: ING adds the clearest comms-channel read past the Oct-19 Westpac under-priced-hike entry — December hike 'remains a likely outcome', the Fed is in BLACKOUT and cannot send a dovish message at the October meeting, and still-elevated energy prices argue against a material bond recovery; the ~25bp lower repricing in US rates does NOT mark a major USD downtrend (DXY could revisit 101.0, little downside beyond). Handelsbanken Global Macro Forecast: 'inflation broadening, rate hikes drawing closer.' Reinforces the hawkish-minority/reversible-rally read; the risk is a yield rebound if the AI wobble fades.
  Sources: Handelsbanken, Lloyds, independent channels
• 2026-10-19 Oct 19 intraday: macro commentators sharpens the pricing past the morning ING blackout read — ~15% Oct-hike priced, December hike a 'virtual certainty' (stronger than ING's 'likely'); attributes 10y yields down ~30bp from the two-week highs DESPITE hot CPI/PPI to investor comfort with real yields at multi-year highs PLUS European riots pushing money out of European sovereigns. No Fed speakers this week (blackout). Lean: USD-supportive, 'the cleanest dirty shirt'.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-18 Oct 18 (weekend): independent research (LB Macro) counters the ~15% Oct-pause majority past the Oct-17 RenMac 'coin flip' entry — argues the hiking cycle is under-priced and that AI-equity and French-bond stress are premature reasons to expect the Fed to hold. Reinforces the hawkish minority (RenMac 'coin flip' / earlier CME 85%) against Handelsbanken/Lloyds '<15%'. Single source, no numbers; the source split on Oct persists.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-17 Oct 17 (weekend): RenMac reframes Oct as a 'coin flip' and warns a skip could force 'more aggressive action in December' — a slightly less-dovish read than the Handelsbanken ~15% / Lloyds '<15%' majority; macro commentators' CME 85% reiterated but flagged stale. Net: majority still 'Oct pause, Dec base case', but the source split widened (RenMac/macro commentators vs Handelsbanken/Lloyds/WSJ/Bloomberg).
  Sources: Lloyds, Handelsbanken, WSJ, independent channels
• 2026-10-16 Oct 16: the AI-stress-vs-inflation two-way sharpens past the Oct-15 odds-28%/bond-market-doing-tightening entry — Thu data firms the hawkish side (retail sales firm, PPI 'uncomfortably high', claims low; ING no figures) and Beige Book shows input-price complaints with firms wanting higher rates; Goolsbee 'discouraging', warns overheating. ING (Garvey) 'Don't expect a break back below 5%'. Bloomberg crystallises the frame: bond market, not CPI, now 'in the driving seat' — buyers at 5.2-5.3% eased hike urgency. Net: cuts fully priced out, Oct hike still unlikely at ~28%.
  Sources: Bloomberg, Lloyds, Handelsbanken, WSJ, independent channels
• 2026-10-16 Oct 16 intraday: Warsh at IMF (Bangkok) DECLINED to add hawkish guidance despite hot CPI/PPI, calling AI a positive long-run supply shock with near-term demand boost (supports hike-by-Dec) — Oct-hike odds cut to ~15% from ~25% (Handelsbanken) / '<15%' (Lloyds) past the Oct-15 odds-28% entry. Sep PPI final demand +1.3% m/m (median +0.6%), ex-food&energy +0.7% (median +0.3%) at new y/y peaks; market 'shrugged' it off, Lloyds flags lagged second-round risk. Dollar softer, front-end lower for Oct; Dec still base case.
  Sources: Lloyds, Handelsbanken, Bloomberg, WSJ
• 2026-10-16 Oct 16 intraday: Lloyds Weekly CORROBORATES the Warsh non-tilt past the morning odds-~15% entry — Warsh gave no indication an October rise is imminent, and global bond yields FELL over the week despite strong US data and upside inflation surprises, on the AI-equity sell-off. CONFLICT flag: macro commentators (early, CME) says Oct-hike probability 'jumped to 85%' — treated as stale/unverified vs the Lloyds/Handelsbanken ~15%/<15% majority. Warsh (via macro commentators): 'I don't prejudge meetings... a new chapter at the Fed.'
  Sources: Lloyds, independent channels
• 2026-10-15 Oct 15: the hot core-CPI aftermath sharpens past the Oct-14 'odds to ~45%' entry — Oct-hike odds peaked >50% intraday then RETRACED to ~35% (Westpac; ING had 45%). Bloomberg's causal read is new: the 10y selling off then buying back (5.32%→5.18%) 'takes pressure off the Fed' — the bond market, not the Fed, is doing the tightening, so a hike this month stays unlikely even with cuts off the table. Beige Book showed intensifying input-price pressure and contacts keen on higher rates; supercore back >3%, Cleveland trimmed-mean + Atlanta sticky CPI ticking up, lowest-quartile wage growth now below headline CPI. Lloyds: the FCI-G is back to a net growth TAILWIND (easier equities/spreads), which argues for a HARDER Fed if equities hold. Williams: one more hike this year, none 2027. Warsh fireside with Georgieva, Bangkok, Fri.
  Sources: Bloomberg, Lloyds, WSJ, independent channels
• 2026-10-15 Oct 15 intraday: Oct-hike odds pared further to 28% (Handelsbanken) from the ~35-45% range, 10y jumped 9bp to 5.30% then reversed to ~5.09-5.10% past the Oct-15 'odds retraced to ~35%' entry. Lloyds adds granular Sep CPI: headline +0.65% m/m/3.74% y/y, core +0.33%/2.56%, NO clear energy pass-through to core yet but firms have pricing power, producer-level pass-through appearing, real wages slightly negative, risks to upside. Goolsbee (via BBG): data 'discouraging', overheating warning. ING: today's retail sales + PPI mildly USD-supportive. Fed now in communications blackout to the Oct FOMC apart from Warsh's IMF appearance.
  Sources: Lloyds, Handelsbanken, Bloomberg, independent channels
• 2026-10-14 Oct 14: into the CPI print, the Fed voices split dovish-ish past the Oct-13 ING-75bp-more/hike-pricing entry — Williams signals ONE further hike this year with little need beyond and no hikes in 2027 (Bloomberg: Fed-hawkishness fear 'overdone'); Hammack restrictive but STOPPED SHORT of backing an October hike (LB). Consensus Sep CPI firmed to 3.6% y/y / core 2.5% (core ~0.2% m/m); ING sees in-line core limiting USD downside. Warsh fireside with Georgieva Fri; Beige Book today.
  Sources: Bloomberg, independent channels
• 2026-10-14 Oct 14 intraday (hours pre-CPI): ING formalises a HOTTER-than-consensus call — sees headline +0.7% m/m / core +0.3% vs consensus 0.6%/0.2% — and says an above-50% October-hike probability (now ~20%, Handelsbanken under 1-in-4) needs headline near 1.0% m/m and/or core 0.4%; market prices three more hikes by June. Lloyds adds the FCI-G has swung back to a net growth tailwind — an inflation-mandate concern. WSJ: a hot print could reverse the recent easing in yields from multidecade highs.
  Sources: Handelsbanken, Lloyds, WSJ, Bloomberg, independent channels
• 2026-10-14 Oct 14 (CPI landed): Sep core MISSED upside — core +0.3% m/m / 2.6% y/y vs 0.2%/2.5% consensus (headline in-line +0.6%/3.7%), driven by shelter reaccelerating +0.4% (after three ~0.2% prints), airfares +1.2% (Spirit shutdown) and gasoline +9.1% m/m; past the morning ING-hotter-than-consensus call. October hike odds jumped to ~45% from ~20%, but ING reads that as still short of an actual October move (officials signalled no hurry post-Sep) and holds December as base case, risks skewed higher. Disinflation counterweight: ~3% wages, low-hire/low-fire labour, weak housing (softer shelter ahead), lighter tariffs; Hormuz + AI data-centre buildout the upside risks rate hikes can't address.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-13 Oct 13: ING sharpens the hawkish convergence past the Oct-12 JWS-cadence/Westpac reads — now prices ~75bp MORE Fed hikes, sees upside risk to the 0.2% m/m core consensus and thinks hike pricing 'may not leave until spring'. Sep CPI consensus firmed: headline +0.6% m/m / 3.6% y/y (from 3.4%), core 2.5% (from 2.4%); Musalem AND Waller say more firming needed, Warsh speaks Fri. Siegel (WisdomTree) takes the OTHER side — higher real rates reflect stronger growth, lifting his long-run real equity return to 5.5-6.5%. Wed CPI stands as the adjudicator.
  Sources: Lloyds, Bloomberg, WSJ, independent channels
• 2026-10-12 Oct 12 (weekend): JWS formalises a QUARTERLY G4 hike cadence (Fed Sep/Dec/Mar; two more through March) past the Oct-10 Waller/Logan/Lloyds split — Oct FOMC priced ~4.4-4.5bp, ~52.7bp to March, Jan gap ~10.5bp; headline CPI priced ~0.66% m/m vs BBG ~0.6%; core 0.2%=hold, 0.3%=~50:50, >0.4% needed to nail an Oct move. JWS leans paying Oct over CPI on standalone risk/reward. macro commentators concurs Fed 'not behind the curve', calls the market's hikes-priced-through-end-2027 NOT a fade. Sources frame Wed 14 Oct CPI as the week's adjudicator.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-12 Oct 12 intraday: Westpac reads the FOMC Sep minutes as signalling further hikes likely, with Musalem AND Waller both saying more firming is needed (past the Oct-10/12 JWS-cadence/Waller-Logan split). Capital Wars ('Is the Fed Deliberately Behind the Curve?') argues MARKETS — via collateral conditions, bond vol, the dollar and the curve — are doing the tightening under Warsh, and that Bitcoin may now behave like an ultra-long-duration asset. Treasuries closed (Columbus Day), no US cash read. Wed CPI stands as the adjudicator.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-12 Oct 12 intraday: ING (FX Talking) joins the hawkish convergence past the Westpac/Capital-Wars reads — sees high inflation, high yields and tighter US policy persisting for ~two quarters and expects the ECB to MATCH one last Fed hike in December, framing a synchronised Dec Fed+ECB hike as the base case. Reinforces the week's CPI (Wed 14 Oct) as the adjudicator; no new US-pricing numbers in this window.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-10 Oct 10 (weekend): pricing steady past the Oct-9 Waller/Logan split — end-Oct hike ~20%, 'most officials expect one more hike this year' (minutes), Waller reaffirms hikes needn't be consecutive; ISM services prices-paid highest since 2022, NY Fed 1y inflation expectations 3.9%. Lloyds reiterates core CPI 2.5% Wed 14 Oct would let the Fed DEFER to December. Dense catalyst run laid out: Mon Hammack; Tue Waller/Collins + NFIB; Wed CPI + Beige Book; Thu retail sales/PPI; Fri Warsh+Bailey Bangkok fireside; week of 12 Oct the final pre-blackout window.
  Sources: Lloyds, Federal Reserve, independent channels
• 2026-10-09 Oct 9: Waller (Thu) said further tightening need not come at consecutive meetings, tempering Oct/Nov hike odds (macro commentators ~20% end-Oct, unchanged since Friday's soft payrolls) against Logan's 50bp+ call and Williams' wait — sharpening the pause-vs-path split past the digested-minutes entry. Strong 30y auction Thu joined Wed's strong 10y in pulling long yields off highs (10y 5.223% Fri). CPI Wed 14 Oct the next adjudicator (cons 0.6% m/m, 3.6% y/y, core 2.5%).
  Sources: Handelsbanken, independent channels
• 2026-10-09 Oct 9 intraday: Lloyds reaffirms minutes-driven 'one more hike this year' with ISM services prices-paid at highest since 2022 and NY Fed 1y inflation expectations 3.9% (3-yr high); the NEW framing is that core CPI at 2.5% on Wed 14 Oct would ALLOW the Fed to DEFER the next hike to December (October deferral mechanism made explicit). ECB October hike now LESS likely after French-spread tightening of conditions (Dec hike still priced); BoE Nov hike ~90% priced. US initial claims 197K (Thu), a low reading.
  Sources: Lloyds
• 2026-10-08 Oct 8: Sep FOMC minutes (Sep-16 hike was UNANIMOUS) landed hawkish past the Oct-7 dot-plot entry — 'most participants' see another hike appropriate by year-end, 'several' view policy as not restrictive/only mildly, 'a number' want a higher path on the modal outlook (not just risk-mgmt). Dec hike now ~96% priced (Bloomberg WIRP, per Bloomberg); Oxford Economics diffusion index shows Fed inflation-risk skew the widest since 2008. NY Fed 1y inflation expectations 3.9% (3-yr high). A strong 10y auction capped the long end Wed.
  Sources: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve
• 2026-10-08 Oct 8 intraday: minutes fully digested past the Oct-8 05:24 'unanimous-hike/96%-Dec' entry — ING reads the minutes as a Fed 'firmly expecting to hike' with the dollar supported; Lloyds frames persistent-inflation risks against a resilient labour/GDP picture. Next catalyst reaffirmed as US CPI Wed 14 Oct (median 0.6% m/m, 3.6% y/y from 3.4%, core 2.5% from 2.4%). BI: 30y fixed mortgage 7.49%, highest since 2023. Fed enters blackout after next week (final pre-blackout week).
  Sources: Lloyds, Business Insider, independent channels
• 2026-10-08 Oct 8 intraday: the pace debate sharpened past the digested-minutes entry — Williams (per eightateeight) leans wait/no-action in October while Logan says 50bp or more additional is needed; SEP median 4.1% through 2027 implies ~25bp more then a possible hold. Oct hike odds unchanged ~20%, weak-ish NFP still not moving the pricing. The load-bearing new frame is eightateeight's FCI decomposition: since 8 Aug financial conditions tightened +37.1bp, long rate 25.3bp (~2/3), dollar 9.2bp, equities 7.6bp, short rate only 1.1bp — so term-premium tightening substitutes for hikes only while it persists (Logan). Waller spoke in Istanbul (content not captured).
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-07 Oct 7: unchanged-but-reaffirmed past the Oct-6 ISM-54.9/'slightly-hawkish' entry — October hold comfortable at 21% hike odds if Sep core CPI (14 Oct) prints 0.2% m/m, December hike still ING's base case; FOMC Sept minutes today seen contained in impact (ING earlier flagged them dollar-positive on why many dots showed a second hike). Lloyds: GDPNow Q3 3.7% annualised but consumer sentiment poor (k-shaped); midterms 3 Nov with Democrats a near-certainty for the House and gaining in the Senate (Trump approval -22.1 net, RCP). Westpac: USD softened Tue, letting AUD/EUR/JPY gain, partly handed back overnight.
  Sources: Lloyds, independent channels
• 2026-10-07 Oct 7: dot-plot detail reaffirmed ahead of today's minutes past the Oct-7 05:24 '21%-Oct-odds' entry — ING marks the September dot plot as 4 members expecting two more hikes this year vs 2 expecting none; market firmly prices December, October scaled back after PCE revisions + soft payrolls (Lloyds). ING: minutes unlikely to surprise dovishly and should explain why many dots showed a second hike. macro commentators dissents on the LEVEL (not the near-term pricing): hikes priced through end-2027 have barely pulled back and are too many — his gold-rally thesis is gated on those unwinding.
  Sources: Lloyds, independent channels
• 2026-10-06 Oct 6: Sep NFP marked +29k (below EVERY Bloomberg forecast, UR 4.2%) past the Oct-5 coordinated-guidance/20%-Oct-odds entry — but Mon's ISM Services prices-paid series-high spike runs the OTHER way, sharpening the hold-Oct/hike-Dec split. ING reiterates the market is comfortable with an unchanged late-Oct meeting and a December hike, and that Wed FOMC minutes should explain why many dots showed a second hike (ING: dollar-POSITIVE). Siegel/WisdomTree: softer jobs give room to pause. Westpac notes softer Fed-tightening expectations lifted base metals (copper 6.59).
  Sources: Bloomberg, Handelsbanken, independent channels
• 2026-10-06 Oct 6: ISM Services quantified past the Oct-6 05:24 NFP-+29k/prices-series-high entry — ING marks the print 54.9 (vs 55.4 prior, 55.0 cons) with jobs and prices-paid firmer, prices paid at a fresh high, 'slightly hawkish if anything'; October hold held provided Sep core CPI (14 Oct) prints 0.2% m/m, December hike still ING's base case, Wed FOMC minutes seen contained in impact. Lloyds marks Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 at 3.7% annualised with poor (k-shaped) consumer confidence. Today's flow: ADP weekly payrolls + US trade balance this afternoon, Fed speakers Williams/Musalem/Bowman/Schmid.
  Sources: Lloyds, Handelsbanken, independent channels
• 2026-10-05 Oct 5 (weekend recap): Bloomberg (Bloomberg) frames Williams + Jefferson as 'coordinated guidance' that another 25bp hike is 'no longer a done deal' past the Oct-4 minutes-dated-Wed entry — but stresses the DESTINATION is unchanged: futures still price a 4.75% funds rate a year out, only the pace slowed. AHE below inflation for a sixth straight month; payroll revisions -60k over two months dismissed as noise (Academy's Tchir: 'garbage in, garbage out'); Warsh running a data task force on which numbers the Fed should heed. CPI 14 Oct the next real test; FOMC Sept minutes Wed 7 Oct.
  Sources: Bloomberg, FT
• 2026-10-05 Oct 5: October hike odds marked at ~20% (CME via BI, from ~70% days earlier) past the Oct-4 'coordinated-guidance/destination-unchanged' entry — but the NEW load-bearing point is the FX read: ING says the dollar stays SUPPORTED because Fed pricing is more RESILIENT than ECB/BoE (only 13bp removed from the Fed vs 30bp from the ECB since late Sept), and flags Wed FOMC minutes as USD-POSITIVE, explaining why many dots showed a second hike. December hike still priced. GC bid +0.6% (~$4,188). ISM services (today) and minutes (Wed) the near-term catalysts.
  Sources: Business Insider, Handelsbanken, independent channels
• 2026-10-03 Oct 3 (weekend): independent research (Macro Mornings) reframes the ~71% October no-hike as NOT relief past the Oct-2 post-NFP hold-consensus entry — hiking-cycle drawdowns since 1994 averaged ~-15% S&P (-19% when the dollar rallied, -8.3% when it weakened), and the largest 2000/2007 equity losses came AFTER the Fed STOPPED; dollar/JPY direction decides the damage. Also marks Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 down to 3.7% (from 5.0% on 25 Sep, early-Aug peak ~6.2%). Single-source weekend recap.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-02 Oct 2: the pause lean firmed further past the Oct-1 ~37-40%-Oct entries — Jefferson (deputy chair) said officials 'may need more time'; futures CUT Oct-2027 terminal pricing by 21bp Thu; Oct hike odds now ~30% (Westpac), 37-38% WSJ/BI, ~40% macro commentators. Trimmed-mean core PCE marked at 2.3%, Atlanta Fed Q3 nowcast ~4% (hot growth vs cooling inflation). macro commentators ('The Battle for the Fed'): Warsh must restore forward guidance, recent PCE shows NO broadening of inflation, curve re-steepening = 'tantrum' risk. ING (Turner): dollar barely reacted — 1m OIS 1y-fwd dipped 5bp on PCE and fully retraced. TODAY'S NFP (~+80k, UE 4.1%) the binary; Dec the live meeting. Trump said Powell should be forced to resign from the Fed board.
  Sources: WSJ, Bloomberg, independent channels
• 2026-10-02 Oct 2 intraday: Oct hike pricing marked at 28% (ING FX Daily, from 70% a week ago), <25% (Handelsbanken) past the Oct-1 ~37-40% entry — Jefferson echoes Williams ('no rush for back-to-back hikes'). WSJ: some officials still on the fence before the late-October meeting. ING holds December for the next hike. Today's NFP (consensus median 85k, ADP 90k, UE 4.1%, AHE ~3.1%) the swing; ING doubts a weak headline moves rates/dollar much given low labour-force growth, Lloyds says underlying labour momentum looks good.
  Sources: Handelsbanken, WSJ, independent channels
• 2026-10-02 Oct 2 (post-NFP): the pause lean HARDENED into a near-consensus October hold past the morning 28%-Oct entry — Sep payrolls landed soft on all three metrics (ING): NFP +29k vs +90k cons with 60k downward revisions, UE 4.2% from 4.1% on rising participation (61.8% from 61.6%, labour force +485k), AHE 3.0% y/y vs 3.1% exp. ING (Knightley) and Goldman BOTH now explicitly see NO October hike; GS pushed its second-2026 hike to December and flags a 'strong chance' the FOMC concludes further hikes unnecessary. GS cuts Q4 core PCE to 3.0% y/y vs FOMC median 3.4% on methodology revisions. ING keeps December, calls market pricing of 3-4 further hikes 'too aggressive.' Labour backdrop 'low hire, low fire' — vacancies ~= unemployed (vs 2:1 early 2022), low quits points to further wage-growth downside. Oct 14 CPI the next test (ING: only a hot print makes Oct 'interesting').
  Sources: Goldman Sachs, independent channels
• 2026-10-01 Oct 1: the soft-PCE repricing is confirmed and framed as 'better-balanced' past the Sep-30 15:54 undershoot entry — Bloomberg notes the Fed hiked in September for the FIRST TIME IN THREE YEARS; Oct FOMC now 9bp (vs 18bp Monday), Dec cumulative 29bp (vs 39bp), 10y only -2bp on the print. ING (Pesole) still holds December as base case and says it is PREMATURE to call a dollar top; ING notes a 0.4% core print would have taken Oct pricing near 20bp. Firm real activity (nominal spend +0.9%, Q2 GDP 2.2%) vs weak sentiment (Conf Board 81.9 12-yr low, JOLTS 7,079k) is the tension. Fri payrolls the next test — ING thinks August was overstated and will be revised lower.
  Sources: Bloomberg, Lloyds, independent channels
• 2026-10-01 Oct 1 intraday: October hike odds collapse further to ~37-40% (37% BI close, 38% WSJ/CME, ~40% macro commentators — from ~76% a week ago) past the Sep-30 soft-PCE entry. Lloyds adds the mechanism: BEA revisions lowered core PCE in 9 of last 11 months (avg -0.046pp), taking core to 3.01% y/y (~0.3pp below prior profile), headline 3.42% vs 3.70% exp — the same revisions made growth look hotter (Q2 2.2%, Atlanta Q3 ~4%). ING (Turner) DISSENTS on the front end: 1m USD OIS 1y-fwd fell 5bp on PCE then fully retraced on firm activity + strong ADP; dollar stays bid. WSJ: Fed has 'cover to hold' in Oct (six days before midterms), Dec the live meeting. macro commentators: no inflation case for an Oct hike (share of >3%-annualised PCE items falling), but Warsh must roll back guidance or 'every FOMC will be a battle.'
  Sources: Lloyds, WSJ, Bloomberg, independent channels

Upcoming catalysts

• 2026-11-03 US midterm elections — political-risk flag on the Fed's hiking timeline (Westpac)
• 2026-12-16 FOMC meeting — December hike fully priced (~89bp cumulative by June-2027)