Risk Sentiment Regime dormant
Risk Sentiment Regime is a macro theme formerly tracked by Themic. A cross-asset risk-appetite regime signal: MS's MSI turning risk-on (off a mid-May risk-off low) plus DB's 'growth-resilient-through-the-war' thesis frame a tactical risk-on window as the Iran premium fades and AI-capex/easy-fiscal support The theme went dormant after 2026-06-17 and is no longer actively updated; its dated ledger is preserved below as an archive.
Thesis (as of 2026-06-17)
A cross-asset risk-appetite regime signal: MS's MSI turning risk-on (off a mid-May risk-off low) plus DB's 'growth-resilient-through-the-war' thesis frame a tactical risk-on window as the Iran premium fades and AI-capex/easy-fiscal support holds. Mechanism: a sentiment-cycle turn that bears on ES (above-average forward returns historically), with a USD-soft / Europe-growth-upside corollary bearing on 6E. The Warsh presser is the immediate two-way swing risk to the signal.
Development timeline
- Jun 17 (run5): NEW theme. Morgan Stanley's cross-asset Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) FLIPPED risk-POSITIVE, exiting the risk-off signal held since 15 May 2026 — triggered by reversals in vol, momentum and positioning off last week's near-2-month low; historically tied to above-average 1-week forward global-equity returns. DB ('It's Simple'): global growth forecasts barely moved through the Iran war (AI capex + easy fiscal dominate), war impact set to fade → 'hard not to be bullish'; on FX, resilient growth NOT especially USD-bullish and Europe has the most growth-upgrade scope. SpaceX heading for a 4th straight up day.Sources: Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg, independent channels