FED Warsh Overhaul
FED Warsh Overhaul is a macro theme tracked by Themic. Warsh's hawkish credibility + a 4-sigma-hot US labour market + forward-guidance removal = bear-flattening/hike-repricing bias (ZN bear, SR3 front-end bear). As of 2026-07-14, its status is active with high conviction.
Thesis
Warsh's hawkish credibility + a 4-sigma-hot US labour market + forward-guidance removal = bear-flattening/hike-repricing bias (ZN bear, SR3 front-end bear). First full 25bp hike now priced by year-end vs cuts previously; BNP models 75bp through Mar 2027. Tension with the equity bull narrative that runs on falling yields means a faster-than-priced Warsh tightening compresses multiples (ES). Breadth fragility (Big 3 sectors = all job growth since Dec 2022) and subdued wages are the dovish counterweight; institutional-independence tail persists.
Development timeline
- Jul 14: source split RESOLVES more hawkish into the double-catalyst day — Fed Gov Waller's Monday speech ('will need to consider tightening' on a hot print) pushed markets to ~50/50 July-hike odds and 'probable' TWO hikes by year-end, BOTH year-highs (vs Sunday's ~1/3 July / 50% second-hike path); real yields now highest since 2023. June CPI (8:30am ET; core consensus ~2.8-2.9% per Bloomberg, headline 3.8% per macro commentators) lands 90min before Warsh's first Congressional testimony today. lbmacro frames the repricing as PARALLEL across Fed/ECB/BOJ. macro commentators (capitalwars) counter-flag: bonds + commodities the 'clearest pressure points' for the Global Liquidity cycle — liquidity/collateral stress, not valuation, ends bull markets. 10y UST +0.8bp 4.618%. Sources: Bloomberg, independent channels.Sources: Bloomberg, independent channels
- Jul 14 intraday: repricing now QUANTIFIED precisely (vs prior '~50/50') — Fed July-hike odds 35%→45% and 2-hikes-this-year 50%→70% overnight on Waller; independent research flags a PARALLEL cross-CB jump (ECB 2-hike odds 35%→60%, BoE 15%→64%) = sharpest one-day central-bank repricing of the run. Yesterday's curve move the largest yet: US bear-flattened (short +8bp / long +6bp), 10y 4.63%. Today's triple: June core CPI 13:30 UTC (cons 2.9% y/y, unch from May), big-bank Q2 earnings from 12:00 UTC (~$39bn combined trading rev), Warsh's first House testimony 17:00 UTC. Sources: independent channels, Bloomberg.Sources: Bloomberg, independent channels
- Jul 14 intraday: FIRST hard-data confirmation into the triple-catalyst day — NFIB June Small Business Optimism printed 97.4 vs 95.8 consensus, a hawkish beat ahead of today's CPI (13:30 UTC) and Warsh testimony (17:00 UTC). Independent research (macro commentators) corroborates the Fed-funds repricing and the beat; its own read: no Fed cut this year but also no case for a hike given the energy-driven growth drag. 10y UST little changed this morning after yesterday's +6bp, still pressing late-May highs. Sources: independent channels.Sources: independent channels
- Jul 13: the Jul 14 double-catalyst framing hardens with new source detail — Friday's Monetary Policy Report to Congress explicitly flagged inflation that 'stepped up further this spring,' citing tariffs AND Iran-linked energy prices (i.e. the Hormuz shock now cited as a Fed hawkish input, not just a growth drag); FOMC Minutes showed a unanimous hold but several members open to a hike. Warsh testifies to House Financial Services Cmte Tuesday, directly after June CPI. thebondbeat's scenario for one more 25bp hike: 2y +15-25bp, 5y +10-20bp, 10y +5-15bp, 30y flat-to+10bp. 10y UST +1.8bp to 4.587% into the event; DXY +0.2% the transmission channel. macro commentators welcomes the forward-guidance exit as stabilising; thebondbeat adds a small-bank-failure watch (Kentland Federal S&L closed by OCC/FDIC, 'probably nothing'). Sources: thebondbeat, macro commentators, FT.Sources: FT, independent channels
- Jul 13 intraday: consensus number now explicit into the Tue double-catalyst — June core CPI seen 2.9% y/y (LBMacro), the print to beat hours before Warsh's House testimony. LBMacro reads the hawkish June Minutes as supporting its house call for TWO more hikes this year, with market pricing 'converging' toward that view. Separate corroboration: Goldman Sachs economists (via Business Insider) warn of a GLOBAL inflation increase with the US likely to see the worst of it. 10y ~4.58%, essentially flat vs the 4.587% morning print. Sources: independent channels, Goldman Sachs, Business Insider.Sources: Goldman Sachs, Business Insider, independent channels
- Jul 13 intraday: catalyst calendar hardens + a genuine SOURCE SPLIT opens. Warsh now confirmed to testify to Congress BOTH Tue and Wed (prior had undated House testimony); Tue CPI consensus specified 3.8% headline / 2.9% core (core matches LBMacro; headline new). Fed funds futures price ~1/3 odds of a hike THIS MONTH, certainty of one, 50% of a second by year-end — a MORE DOVISH implied path than LBMacro's two-hikes call; macro commentators explicitly says he would FADE the hawkish pricing (contrarian dovish read now directly opposing LBMacro). Waller & Bowman speak today for clues. 10y +1bp (little changed); DXY 'essentially unchanged' — softer than the prior 'dollar firmed' characterization. Sources: independent channels, Benzinga.Sources: independent channels
- Jul 12: the Jul 14 catalyst hardens into a DOUBLE catalyst — Warsh's first semi-annual Congressional testimony now confirmed for Tuesday, hours AFTER the June CPI print (Warsh: 'the recent past need not be prologue', still refusing to rule out a hike + pushing balance-sheet shrink). thebondbeat's weekly strategist roundup lays out concrete curve positioning into it: BMO now flags 1-in-4 odds of a July hike priced DESPITE softer June payrolls, running both a 2s10s flattener and 7s30s steepener; MS short 7s30s at 64bp (target 100/stop 50) and flags a $20bn 6% payer convexity air-pocket (a 200bp selloff forces mechanical sale of ~half that duration); UBS taking profit on 2s10s steepeners, receiving 3Yx4Y, adding 10Yx20Y inflation-swap longs + holding 5Y real-yield longs; Spectra/Donnelly bullish 2y but 4.25% flips him out. Hedgopia CoT: 30y futures net short 143.6k (+52.8k w/w) into the cheapening. Sources: thebondbeat, Barclays, BMO, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Spectra Markets, Hedgopia, independent channels.Sources: BMO, Morgan Stanley, UBS, independent channels
- Jul 11: incremental corroboration of the task-force / repricing setup already logged — independent research (macro commentators) quantifies ~33bp of HIKES now priced into the FF curve, which it expects the market to PARE BACK if the Fed holds into year-end (the mirror of macro commentators' 'price out 33bp of cuts' framing — note the sign disagreement across sources on what's priced). Norges-Bank tiered-reserve deep-dive (Macroeconomic Policy Nexus, 'Lean, Mean, and Norwegian') firms as the balance-sheet-shrink template one task force may pursue. 30y stopped through at 5.058% (first sub-through since March); 10s backed off 4.60% (-2bp). Sources: independent channels, Macroeconomic Policy Nexus, thebondbeat.Sources: independent channels
- Jul 11 intraday: new dissent sharpens the sign-disagreement already logged — independent research (robinjbrooks) argues there is NO economic case for a 2026 hike: inflation-generalization index ~60% in May (cycle-low), 1yr/5yr expectations RE-ANCHORED after reversing May's spike as oil fell (no de-anchoring), Phillips curve flat enough that 2% core would need a 5-6pt UNR rise. Puts market pricing at ~40bp of hikes through end-2026 (vs the ~33bp figure logged this morning) and explicitly calls the Jul 14 June CPI the print that ENDS the hike speculation via sharp deceleration. Source: independent channels.Sources: independent channels
- Jul 10: the institutional-reform leg gets its most concrete step yet — Warsh named former BoE governor Mervyn King and Marc Andreessen to head new Fed-reform task forces (FT exclusive), the clearest signal to date of the balance-sheet-shrinking / less-forward-guidance agenda (beyond the Waller-communications-overhaul leg logged Jul 7). Follows Wed minutes where, per WSJ, MORE officials flagged the AI buildout specifically as a source of persistent price pressure — though markets again shrugged (independent research: S&P and 10y barely moved). Bloomberg: rising Fed-hike bets are now pressuring JGB/AUD/NZ bonds. Convergence hardening on 'hawkish institutional shift + muted immediate pricing' — the gap flagged as a delayed-repricing risk. US 10y 4.541% (+0.2bp), yields drifting higher globally ex-Japan. Sources: FT, WSJ, Bloomberg, independent channels.Sources: FT, WSJ, Bloomberg, independent channels
- Jul 10 intraday: the hawkish-minutes read gets HEAVY sell-side detail but turns genuinely two-sided. MS/Yardeni/Barclays/Wells Fargo pile on: June dots showed a ZERO-cut median with NINE officials penciling one-or-two HIKES; MS's Fed Monitor reads minutes as 'data-dependent, not a regime shift' while Yardeni calls it a confirmed 'hawkish pivot'; Barclays baseline now UNCHANGED rates through end-2027, risk skewed to hikes. Cutting the other way — NEW dovish counter: ABN AMRO (via thebondbeat) argues sub-4.2% UNR masks real slack, participation -0.9pp since Dec (sharpest ex-Covid/2009, only ~0.2pp demographic), a 25-34 reversal alone could push UNR to 4.6%; consumer credit unexpectedly SHRANK (first since 2024) as card rates jumped. Auctions strong across the curve: $22bn 30y reopening stopped THROUGH at 5.058% (highest award since 2007, 77.7% indirect), 10y drew 3rd-highest foreign demand on record. Sources: MS, Yardeni, Barclays, Wells Fargo, ABN AMRO, independent channels.Sources: Morgan Stanley, Barclays, independent channels
- Jul 10 intraday: two fresh angles on the task-force story logged this morning. (1) macro commentators reads the released task-force leadership list as disappointingly 'old school' (Mervyn King a forward-guidance veteran), TEMPERING the dovish-communications-overhaul hope — a reframing of the King/Andreessen appointments beyond the morning FT flag. (2) NEW intra-Fed split: NY Fed's Williams says his main new concern is AI-infrastructure demand pushing inflation HIGHER — directly at odds with Warsh's stated view that AI is disinflationary. Structural depth (Macroeconomic Policy Nexus): Norges Bank's 2011 floor-to-TIERED-reserve shift (policy rate on a quota, lower reserve rate above) increasingly cited (Duffie, Miran, Mester, Nelson, Borio, Selgin) as the template for Warsh's ample-reserves review. macro commentators: expects Fed on hold all year, market must price OUT the current 33bp of cuts in FF futures. Treasuries backed off the 4.60% 10y test, -2bps this window on post-auction short covering; European sovereigns eased similarly. Sources: independent channels, Macroeconomic Policy Nexus, NY Fed.Sources: independent channels
- Jul 9: the Jul 8 minutes verdict lands as 'genuinely hawkish' (Bloomberg) — a few members already saw a hike CASE last month, most flagged upside inflation risk from AI-driven demand, Mideast conflict and tariffs warranting 'some policy firming.' Fed-funds futures pulled first-hike pricing Oct→SEP with a SECOND hike now also priced (vs the Sep-first-CUT read logged Jul 8). Thematic Markets/macro commentators + Bond Beat reinforce the hawkish-turn/end-of-guidance read; contra, macro commentators reiterates the hawkish-Fed dollar-bull consensus is wrong and will reverse. Constraint: NY Fed 1yr inflation expectations 3.67% (highest since 2023), core PCE 6m annualized 4.1% (worst in 3yrs) even as UBS previews June CPI headline -0.25% m/m (12m ~3.71%) on gasoline -9.1% SA. 30y reopening today; weak 3y takedown + Amazon 8-tranche IG deal add supply pressure. Sources: Bloomberg, UBS, independent channels.Sources: Bloomberg, UBS, independent channels
- Jul 9 intraday: FIRST market-reaction read on the Jul 8 Minutes cuts AGAINST the morning 'genuinely hawkish' (Bloomberg) framing — independent research calls the release a non-event ('hawkish/dovish irrelevant'): hold vote unanimous (several members open to a hike), equities/bonds 'basically ignored' it with the S&P already reclaiming session losses before the drop, 10y unchanged at 4.58%, solid 2.59x bid-to-cover on the 10y auction, no SR3 repricing evident. The muted reaction is itself the signal — a convergence/divergence gap vs Bloomberg's hawkish read. Williams & Logan on the wires later today; Jul 14 CPI the next real catalyst. Source: independent channels.Sources: independent channels
- Jul 8: June NFP quantified as the dovish anchor — +57k vs 115k consensus, prior revised down to 129k, UNR 4.2% driven by a participation DROP to 61.5% (lowest since 2021), i.e. a weak-for-bad-reasons print. Against it, futures still price ~30bp of hikes by December + near-certain October hike, SOFR skewed higher — the crowded setup vulnerable into today's FOMC June minutes (Warsh's first). Fresh three-source contrarian alignment (thebondbeat, macro commentators x2, robinjbrooks) reiterating hawkish pricing is overdone. Countervailing: the Hormuz oil shock lifted NY Fed 1yr inflation expectations to 3.67%, cutting against the dovish repricing into Jul 14 CPI. Sources: independent channels, thebondbeat.Sources: independent channels
- Jul 8 intraday: the crowded-hawkish-fade consensus met its FIRST structural DISSENT — Thematic Markets (Barth & macro commentators) argue Sintra marked a global shift BACK to orthodox/hawkish central banking, Warsh ending forward guidance is credibility-positive, and they 'remain constructive on the US dollar' — the first source this week taking the opposite side of the fade thesis. Countering, robinjbrooks doubled down dovish with the new US-oil-export data, reiterating the Fed (not oil) drives USD lower as cuts come. 10y UST pushed to 4.58% (+0.44 on the day per WSJ) on the oil-inflation scare — bigger move than the +2bp morning read. FOMC June minutes today the arbiter. Sources: WSJ, independent channels.Sources: WSJ, independent channels
- Jul 8 intraday: the two-camp fade debate becomes GENUINELY THREE-WAY — Apollo (Apollo, 'The Decoupling: Energy Down, Yields Up') files the first explicit 'no cut soon' call this week: the Fed's problem has shifted from headline to core, cheaper oil alone won't open the door, expects a HOLD next meeting — distinct from both the dovish chorus and this morning's Barth/macro commentators hawkish-dollar call. Countering dovishly, NY Fed's Williams called policy 'well-positioned' and echoed Warsh's Sintra line that energy declines improved the near-term inflation outlook. NEW dated catalyst: UBS June CPI preview headline -0.25% m/m (vs -0.05% Street), pulling y/y to ~3.71% — Jul 14 the arbiter; fed funds futures moved FIRST-CUT pricing to September from October (macro commentators), a second cut back in play. Cutting the other way: NY Fed 3yr expectations 3.3% (highest since Jun 2022), core PCE 6m annualized 4.1% (worst in 3yrs). Auction red flag: 3Y stopped through but dealer takedown at a record-low share ahead of today's 10Y / tomorrow's 30Y reopenings. Sources: Apollo, UBS, Morgan Stanley, independent channels.Sources: Apollo, UBS, Morgan Stanley, independent channels
- Jul 7: the institutional/communications-reform leg WIDENS — Fed governor Waller joins Warsh in calling for a communications overhaul, explicitly citing pandemic-era 'hold' commitments that fed the last inflation wave (FT), adding a second named official to the reaction-function-refocus story. On pricing, CME still shows a full October hike priced but the December second hike 'fallen by the wayside' (corroborating the Jul 6 intraday read from a fresh source). TRADITION's 'Real Yield Illusion' note argues the real-yield surge is a policy-path/breakeven artifact (5y breakeven 2.25%, on-target), recommends 5y TIPS / bull-steepeners. Wed Jul 8 June Minutes (first under Warsh) the next test.Sources: FT, Morgan Stanley, independent channels
- Jul 7 intraday: two new textures on the reaction-function debate. (1) Waller (Rome) softened the 'joins Warsh' read from yesterday — argues forward guidance 'can be valuable if done carefully', warns only against rigidity, a more nuanced stance than Warsh's stated preference to abandon signaling; Bowman speaks today after. (2) NEW structural detail: ING (via thebondbeat) reports Warsh is examining shrinking the Fed balance sheet by as much as $4.5tn — all $2tn MBS plus ~$2.5tn (roughly half) of the Treasury book — back toward pre-GFC ~5.5% of GDP. June ISM services in line at 54.0, prices-paid eased to 67.7, but employment index jumped to 51.2 (World-Cup artifact). UBS reiterates long-5y-real-yields/2s10s-steepener (echoing TRADITION). $58bn 3y auction lands this afternoon in a bear-steepening session (10y ~4.47-4.50%).Sources: UBS, Morgan Stanley, independent channels
- Jul 7 intraday: the crowded-hawkish-positioning read now quantified in FUTURES PRICING — Fed funds futures price a 25% probability of a July hike, near-certainty by October, ~30bp cumulative by December (macro commentators/Adf via CME); Saxo's net USD-long positioning at 10-year highs corroborates the CFTC $40bn from last update. NEW supply-vs-inflation angle: UST + European sovereigns + JGBs all +2bp overnight read as a SUPPLY concern (fiscal expansion, Europe raising defense spend), not inflation — Adf questions who replaces the Fed as a UST buyer if the $4.5tn runoff proceeds, expects regulatory relief (banks/insurers holding USTs sans capital penalty) as an offset. Dow closed >53,000 first time; 10y 4.47%. FOMC Minutes Wed.Sources: independent channels
- Jul 6: the hawkish-rhetoric/dovish-substance split now gets its broadest sell-side confirmation of the week — a seven-desk sweep (BAML, Barclays, UBS, Morgan Stanley, ING, Yardeni + robinjbrooks) independently reiterates 'Fed on hold through year-end, eventual cuts' against a market that keeps repricing MORE hawkish: 6m T-bill 3.97% (+~50bp since Jan), 2y 4.14% (+76bp since early Feb), ~1.5 hikes / ~40bp priced by Mar 2027. MS explicitly calls the front-end 'overdone' and favors re-entering 7s30s steepeners at -19bp; BMO stays in flatteners — a genuine curve-shape disagreement now central. Wed Jul 8 FOMC minutes (first under Warsh) is the next test ahead of Jul 14 CPI. Source: thebondbeat (curating the desks), Morgan Stanley, BofA, Barclays, UBS, ING.Sources: Morgan Stanley, BofA, Barclays, UBS, independent channels
- Jul 6: beyond the seven-desk 'hold-then-cut' sweep already logged, Morgan Stanley (Jul 6, 04:01) quotes Warsh DIRECTLY — 'inflation risks have come down' and both sides of the dual mandate must be delivered — and argues forward guidance will be 'significantly diminished' with the reaction function refocused on inflation over the dot plot. NEW higher-for-longer cross-current from a fresh voice: Bloomberg Economics ties the Iran war to a structurally higher GLOBAL rate path, raising its 2028 rate forecasts 'as much as half a percentage point or more' vs pre-war — cutting AGAINST the desks' hold-then-cut view. MS: ~1.5 hikes still priced through 1Q-2027, 5y TIPS breakeven 2.25% ('on target' for core PCE); TRADITION recommends buying 5y TIPS as a bull-steepener (real-yield spike a 'repricing artifact, not organic growth'). Wed Jul 8 FOMC minutes next. Source: Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg Economics, Business Insider, TRADITION (via Bond Beat).Sources: Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg, Business Insider, independent channels
- Jul 6 intraday: the front-end repricing that the seven-desk sweep called overdone now shows FIRST cracks in futures — independent research (macro commentators, per CME) notes the second (December) hike that was priced as of Jun 24 has 'fallen by the wayside' post-Sintra + oil slide; author now expects NO hike at all in 2026 and calls a December CUT 'viable.' lbmacro flags Wed Jul 8 FOMC June Minutes (first under Warsh) plus Waller/Williams/Logan on the wires as the reaction-function test. Treasury yields -3bp this morning. Fresh two-source narrowing on the Minutes as next catalyst.Sources: Bloomberg, independent channels
- Jul 5: The June NFP miss (+57k, logged Jul 4 PM) now framed by Macro Mornings ('Bleeding Out', Jul 4) as a financing-GAP story — record equity inflows near the 90th percentile since 2002 diverging from a weakening labor market and a Fed down to 14.17% UST ownership as debt crosses $39.3tn; argues the gap eventually FORCES a policy reversal (adds the 'US exceptionalism surface vs weakening core' framing to the already-logged debt-sustainability leg). macro commentators' Jul 4 QT essay separately noted the SCOTUS ruling expanding presidential control over independent agencies CARVED THE FED OUT — a new legal detail on the independence leg beyond the Cook/Powell-targeting reports. Six-source convergence (robinjbrooks x3, macro commentators, Bloomberg, macromornings, thebondbeat) on 'hawkish rhetoric, dovish substance'. SR3 front-end still hawkish (July 1/3, Oct certain, 40% Dec 2nd) vs dovish commentary = fade risk; ZN 10y richened to 4.50% (resistance 4.35%/4.55%).Sources: Bloomberg, independent channels
- Jul 5 intraday: independent research (robinjbrooks, 'Markets After the Oil Shock') adds a fresh standalone read on the logged hawkish-rhetoric/dovish-substance split — fed-funds futures now price MORE hikes into end-2026 than at ANY point in the past three months, despite oil's full round-trip to pre-war (disinflationary). He dates the hawkish repricing to the peace-deal/oil rather than the Jun 17 FOMC, calls it the market's single biggest live mispricing, and names Jul 14 CPI as the unwind catalyst: real 2y yields dragged higher, 2y breakevens fallen — the divergence itself is the fade. Layers onto this morning's 6-source convergence.Sources: independent channels
- Jul 4: the Fed-independence leg advances beyond the Jul 3 Cook/Powell-targeting report — Bloomberg's Friday briefing leads on officials reportedly 'exploring other routes' to remove Board members after SCOTUS blocked the Cook firing, making board reshaping the day's dominant Fed sub-story. On the rates read, independent research (macro commentators) reiterates weak prime-age participation = 'the start of the dollar correction' with Jul 14 CPI the test; GS Research restates its own house call for CUTS next year vs market hike pricing. No fresh data or auction this window.Sources: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs, independent channels
- Jul 4 (Saturday): two incremental legs beyond this morning's Cook/Powell board-reshaping report. (1) NEW structural balance-sheet facet — independent research (macro commentators) argues meaningful QT is structurally unlikely: Fed balance sheet ~21% of GDP (Treasuries two-thirds of assets), QT episodes historically smaller/shorter than QE, and recurring shocks mean the medium-term trend is UP not down; read as reinforcing the low-real-yield / gold-supportive channel (ZN/GC). (2) Bloomberg Weekend Opinion specifies the SCOTUS block on Cook's removal was a narrow 5-4 ruling — framed as exposing the Fed's institutional fragility as much as protecting independence, sharpening (not changing) the logged independence story. No fresh data/auction/level this window.Sources: Bloomberg, independent channels
- Jul 4 (Macro Mornings): the actual June NFP print (referenced but not detailed in this morning's entry) now quantified — +57k vs +115k expected, May revised DOWN to +129k, UNR improved to 4.2% but participation fell to 61.5% (lowest since Mar 2021), household survey -507k, leisure/hospitality -61k (no World Cup bump), wages +0.3% m/m / +3.5% y/y — a clean labor-softening beneath the headline that corroborates the logged 'weak-participation dollar-correction' read. NEW debt-sustainability/QT-capacity angle: Fed now owns just 14.17% of outstanding USTs (down from ~25% in 2021) while federal debt crossed $39.3tn — argued a hawkish Fed shrinking its sheet is structurally incompatible with financing the debt load, so an eventual dovish/balance-sheet re-expansion is expected (teases an unnamed '13% below fair value' reversal asset, implied gold-adjacent). Extends the Jul 4 AM structural-balance-sheet leg with debt-supply/term-premium framing (ZN) rather than replacing it.Sources: independent channels
- Jul 3: the bond-vs-FX split on Warsh (logged Jul 2) gets three-source convergence — independent research and macro commentators (macro commentators, Bond Beat) independently read the July 1 Sintra 'inflation risks have declined' line as performative-hawkish masking a dovish core, siding with FX's dovish read (broad USD weak, yen jumped) over bonds' hawkish read (US/EU/JGB yields all up, 10y testing 4.50-4.55% pivot). June NFP released today (moved up for July 4): consensus +110k vs prior 172k, UNR 4.3%, AHE +3.5% y/y, ADP +98k (12th straight gain), Goldman flags possible +40k World Cup boost — the actual print/reaction NOT in today's source set. ISM mfg 53.3 (miss vs 53.9; prices-paid 73.0). PIMCO contrarian: AI-driven precautionary saving pushes neutral rate DOWN not up.Sources: Bloomberg, independent channels
- Jul 3 intraday: the dovish read gets its post-NFP validation — independent research (macro commentators) calls Thursday's weak June payrolls 'the start' of a dollar correction, citing falling prime-age labor-force participation as evidence the labor market is weaker than headline prints; expects the fall to consolidate into July 14 CPI. NEW structural independence risk: Bloomberg reports Trump/allies renewing efforts to reshape the Fed Board — now targeting Gov Cook AND former Chair Powell after SCOTUS blocked the Cook firing. Cross-market: DXY extended lower (EUR/USD 1.15), gold +1.4%, front-end pulling back hike pricing.Sources: Bloomberg, independent channels
- Jul 2 (Bloomberg): Warsh's first Sintra remarks landed dovish-TONED — inflation expectations/risks 'have come down' over his first four weeks, credited to the oil retreat. But Bloomberg's counter-frame: the bear-flattening (2y peaked 4.23% Jun 22, ended ~4.14% +13bp on the month; 10y ~4.47%) is a 'higher-for-longer' liquidity-TIGHTENING signal per Global Liquidity's macro commentators, not benign disinflation; TSLombard warn a Warsh who 'fights' by delaying cuts hikes MORE later, threatening the AI-equity bull and the dollar rally. Mixed data stack into NFP: May JOLTS 7.6mn (beat, 2019 highs), June Challenger 45,849 (-53% m/m, AI-cited 4th mo), June consumer confidence 91.2 with present-situation lowest since Mar 2021. Two hawkish market reads to reconcile: macro commentators CME ~1/3 July / near-certain Oct / ~40% 2nd Dec vs BI's 3 hikes + 67% Sept.Sources: Bloomberg, Business Insider
- Intraday Jul 2: NFP-day data softened the hawkish case — June ISM manufacturing 53.3 (below 53.9 cons; prices-paid eased to 73.0) and ADP +98k; 2y eased to 4.13% (BMO) as Warsh's Sintra remarks re-read 'incrementally less hawkish', narrowing (not resolving) the hawkish-market-vs-dovish-signal split. New skeptic voices: independent research (macro commentators) argues Warsh's 'price stability' rhetoric is PERFORMATIVE (to establish Fed independence) while the substantive message is genuinely dovish — markets haven't unwound the June hawkish repricing. UBS disputes Warsh's AI-as-disinflationary 'productivity pixie' claim ('not true' — a relative price shock). Yardeni: Warsh will let bond-market pricing guide policy vs forward guidance; 10y TIPS breakeven 2.23%, 5y5y forward 2.30%. NFP consensus 110k (Newsquawk), AHE +3.5% y/y (Barclays), UNR 4.3% — Goldman flags possible +40k World Cup-hiring distortion. 10y touched 4.50% resistance Wed.Sources: Bloomberg, UBS, BMO, Barclays, Goldman Sachs, independent channels
- Intraday Jul 2 (macro commentators/independent research): a genuine BOND-vs-FX split now visible on how to read Warsh — CME funds pricing checked against the dovish Sintra remarks is 'virtually identical' to a week ago (Oct hike + 40% Dec second still priced), and the 10y read the 'won't tolerate above-target' line HAWKISH (+6bp Wed, +1bp Thu AM, ~4.50%), while FX read it DOVISH (USD lower vs nearly all G10/EM). macro commentators' futures-pricing method independently corroborates the logged macro commentators 'rhetoric≠substance' call. Next test: CPI Jul 14.Sources: independent channels
- Jul 1: first hard data test of the hawkish pricing lands ahead of Warsh's Sintra remarks (today) — JOLTS job openings printed back at their pre-pandemic PEAK (a beat), and US 10y jumped +3.7bp to 4.459% overnight, the most significant rates move this window. No new broker calls; BofA-3x vs UBS-hold divergence and Yardeni 'Treasury-Fed Accord' framing unchanged. Warsh Sintra today is the first public comms since the June dot shift; NFP Thu (UBS +80k vs ~110-120k consensus) the binary.Sources: Bloomberg, FT, independent channels
- Intraday Jul 1: hike pricing firms hard — Sept hike odds 67%, THREE hikes now priced by year-end (Business Insider), up from this morning's 'Oct + 1/3 Dec.' Paradoxical driver: Challenger layoffs cooled sharply (June -53% m/m to 45,849, AI-cited 4th straight month) read as 'good' data reinforcing hawkish case, contributing to UST selloff (Tue 2y/10y/30y cheapened 6.8/9.1/8.8bp per MS; 10y 4.47% into Sintra). Bessent pre-NFP jawbones a 'very strong' June print (echoing his May pre-172k comment). UBS revised year-end forecasts HIGHER — 2y 3.95% (from 3.63%), 10y 4.35% (from 4.25%), a hawkish shift from a previously dovish shop. ADP (est +120k) today the last read before Thu NFP; forecast dispersion UBS +80k to Yardeni +188k.Sources: Business Insider, Morgan Stanley, WSJ, UBS, independent channels
- Jun 30: the logged SCOTUS-on-Cook catalyst RESOLVES — 5-4 ruling Trump CANNOT fire Gov Cook (Fed constitutionally 'special'), Fed independence preserved; market 'barely a ripple' (Bloomberg) since Warsh already chair and war+>3% inflation already ruled out the cuts Trump wanted. New companion: Trump CAN fire SEC/CFTC chairs at will (crypto regulatory channel, not rates). Into the week: Warsh/Bailey/Macklem at Sintra Wed 9am (Bond Beat: 'slightly hawkish, little guidance'); NFP Thu (early close) the binary — May 172k, 3mo avg 188k. Bond Beat: 'hot = ugly steepener; weak = revives cut fantasies until next inflation crushes them.' Hatfield outlier held: June CPI -0.18%, three cuts/12mo (Bloomberg: 'well out of consensus'). 10y 4.374%, range 3.95-5.00%, momentum overbought.Sources: Bloomberg, WSJ, independent channels
- Intraday Jun 30: Morgan Stanley adds a transmission read — Warsh's posture will keep mortgage rates 'stubbornly elevated,' a mild bear-flattener implication and a consumer/housing headwind. 10y 4.37% (-0.23bp), SCOTUS-on-Cook now priced as a stable backdrop with no new directional signal vs the morning. Separately, UMich consumer sentiment flagged as methodologically 'seemingly broken' (Nate Silver) — reduces the reliability of the next print as a Fed-input signal.Sources: Morgan Stanley
- Intraday Jun 30: polar-opposite broker calls now on the tape. BofA (Jun 25): THREE 25bp hikes Sept/Oct/Dec → FF 4.25-4.50%, NO cuts through 2028, 'hike risk underpriced' (market 35bp priced vs BofA's 75bp warranted) — pay front end, 2s10s flatteners, fade US-vs-RoW. UBS (Jun 30): hold then 2027 easing, NFP est +80k vs +110k consensus, 2yr to 3.95%/10yr to 4.35%, 2s10s steepeners + long 5y TIPS. NEW Yardeni 'Treasury-Fed Accord' thesis: Warsh+Bessent talking tough to compress the LONG end not the front — FF fell 175bp since Warsh confirmation yet 10y rose 3.70%→4.38%, 'price stability' cited 8x at Jun 17 presser. SCENARICA: Warsh pushing new inflation framework, Dallas Fed concedes trimmed-mean PCE 'broken' — reaction-function goalposts widening. CME pricing Oct hike + 1/3 Dec.Sources: BofA, UBS, independent channels
- Jun 29 (Bloomberg): the H2 frame sharpened — markets pricing 'lower inflation AND higher rates,' which Bloomberg calls 'highly unlikely to be correct,' with 1yr inflation swaps at pandemic-era lows DIVERGING from core PCE above 3% (predates Iran). New countervailing reflation channel (Bloomberg/Apollo-Apollo): lower oil = tax cut → demand boost → reflation forcing Warsh to hike anyway. Far-out-of-consensus dovish call (Hatfield/Infrastructure Capital): June CPI -0.18% headline / +0.24% core, THREE cuts over 12 months. Barclays pegs June core PCE ~0.20% m/m. GS internal split surfaced: Rosner flags 'decent chance' of a July hike against the GS no-hike base case. JPM: 10y now 27bp below model fair value — largest gap since Mar 2023. Warsh Sintra Wed the next reset.Sources: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Apollo, JPMorgan
- Intraday Jun 29: NFP-setup tightens beyond the morning's Bloomberg framing — Capital Economics warns June jobs 'expected to be strong' and 'the increasingly strong labour market is not a reason to delay tightening — which could be the biggest near-term risk to USTs.' May payrolls context: +172k, 3-mo avg 188.3k (after +93k cumulative Mar/Apr revisions). 10y 4.39-4.475%, 'aggressively unchanged' mid-range; TIP/TLT trending down gives cover for a weekly-bullish 10y lean (Bond Beat), 'fade hikes' posture on 2y. Bond Beat positioning: 'Don't just do something, STAND THERE' — duration near benchmark into NFP. Warsh at Sintra Wed expected 'slightly hawkish, little guidance.'Sources: independent channels
- Jun 27-28 (Bond Beat weekly): the 'performative hawkishness, over-priced' camp is now a six-voice convergence (macro commentators/Brookings, Donnelly/Spectra, BMO, Goldman, MS, SocGen) aggregated in one note — strongest alignment of the week. New specifics: ~half the hawkish dots came from non-voting regional presidents (GS); Donnelly explicitly long 2s, July hike 20% / Sep 75% both 'over-priced', draws Oct-2018 'long way from neutral' parallel (real rates ~2% again); UBS flags Sep 30 BEA PCE methodology revision lowering measured core PCE ~0.23pp (hidden tailwind). The structurally-new point: Warsh abandoning forward guidance/dot-plot reliance means every data release matters more and rate vol rises structurally. CME 51.4% Sep hike; ~30bp priced through Dec. Warsh Sintra (Jul 1) the next reset.Sources: BMO, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Societe Generale, UBS, independent channels
- Jun 28: a Fed-INDEPENDENCE catalyst lands on the calendar — US SCOTUS expected to rule Monday Jun 29 on whether Trump can remove Fed governor Lisa Cook; flagged as a two-way ZN/ES/USD repricing at Monday open that directly amplifies the morning's 'performative hawkishness' / institutional-independence-tail read. NFP advanced to Thu Jul 2 is the week's dominant print.Sources: independent channels
- Jun 27: the in-line PCE print is now quantified — core PCE +0.32% m/m / +3.4% y/y (highest since Oct 2023); Q1 GDP final +2.1%, Q2 GDPNow +2.4%; 9 FOMC dots now imply a hike; 2yr below 4.10%, 10yr 4.225% (very flat/inverted front-end signals market NOT fully priced for a hike). Siegel (WisdomTree) joins the dovish camp — falling oil makes hikes unlikely despite the dots. Jul 14 CPI (pre-FOMC) and the Jul 28-29 FOMC are the live decision sequence.Sources: Bloomberg, independent channels
- Jun 27: macro commentators (IIF) 'Conspiracy Theories About the Fed' escalates the dovish-pushback — the +50bp dot swing (Mar median -37.5bp cuts → Jun median +12.5bp hike) is structurally ANOMALOUS because it happened against FALLING oil (Mar was the $200-Brent panic; Jun was peace + tumbling crude). Warsh's presser was performative credibility/independence-signalling vs Trump-deal conspiracy theories, NOT a genuine hawkish pivot; he chose NOT to submit a dot (18 vs 19). Conspiracy that anti-Trump FOMC members shifted dots to box Warsh into hikes is 'just gossip,' but enough of a mess that macro commentators wants the dot plot RETIRED for fan charts. Trading read: do not add SR3 shorts / sell ZN on the dot plot alone; wait Jul 14 CPI.Sources: independent channels
- Jun 27 (Macro Mornings): a QUANTITY/balance-sheet leg added to the hawkish-words-dovish-action read — Fed B/S at $6.737T (15-month high, +$162.8bn YTD), QT quietly ended Dec 2025 with ~$200bn re-added; composition pivot Treasuries +$251.8bn→$4.49T vs MBS -$74.2bn→$1.96T. Framed as 'monetising the deficit out the back door while talking tough out front.' Bond Beat corroborates ZN-bull: UMich year-ahead 4.6% (↓0.2) / long-run 3.3% (↓0.6), TIP/TLT rolling over (peak-inflation), 2s/5s/7s 'bullish setups.' Counter: CME Sep 400-425bp hike only 21.6%, robust NFP expected Jul 3.Sources: independent channels
- Intraday Jun 26: the dovish-breakeven pushback hardens with hard flow — 5yr breakevens now BELOW pre-Iran-conflict levels (M&G Bond Vigilantes 'The Hawk That Cannot Fly': the inflation market reads a transitory energy shock, not a wage-price spiral; 'one of them is wrong' — dot plot vs breakevens — and fiscal arithmetic makes hiking structurally hard). 2yr broke below 4.10% Thursday; BofA weekly flows show $16.6bn into bonds (largest institutional accumulation this window); MOVE fully reversed the wartime bid; BMO calls July/Sep hike odds 'overpriced.' Counter-camp: Yardeni holds ≥1 hike before year-end (core PCE 3.4% + AI electricity/electronics impulse, July live). PIMCO/MS add the structural-vol leg: less guidance → wider data-to-data ranges; MS recommends long 2y10y straddles. Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE + Kashkari on wires today.Sources: BMO, BofA, PIMCO, Morgan Stanley, independent channels
- Jun 25: Warsh presser doubled down — reiterated 2% 'unambiguously and unanimously' and SHUT DOWN Miran's (ex-Fed) floated idea of abandoning the precise 2% target ('no reason... until we have reestablished our commitment'). Goolsbee: inflation 'well above target and going the wrong way.' BofA: 3 hikes in final 4 meetings; CME ~67% late-July hike. UBS flags Warsh's 'sock puppet' denial (independence-perception leg). SocGen base case: HOLD through 2026, possibly 2027, 10Y target 4.20% YE / 3.75% mid-2027 — hike only if Iran deal collapses (10Y 4.85%). macro commentators/Bob Elliott the dissent — BofA/CME calls 'nuts', oil collapse erodes the inflation base. 2y auction ($69bn Jun 24) stopped through at 4.189% — mediocre internals. PCE (May) today the bifurcation.Sources: Bloomberg, BofA, UBS, independent channels
- Intraday Jun 25: the hawkish consensus gets a named, analytical PUSHBACK — macro commentators (Brookings) explicitly rejects the BofA/CME-67% hike read: Warsh's presser was 'performative' (had to differentiate from the White House, didn't contribute to the dot plot), and the core inconsistency — oil back to pre-war but Fed priced far MORE hawkish than pre-war — 'doesn't make sense.' TIPS real 2y yield up sharply post-FOMC but macro commentators says that's a misread. Names June CPI (14 Jul) as the bifurcation: falling-oil deflationary impulse to show 'next move is a cut.' PCE (May)/GDP/claims/7Y auction all due 12:30 UTC+, after this window.Sources: independent channels
- Jun 24: the no-guidance regime crystallises into a full Greenspan-modelling frame on the day of his death — Warsh dropped FOMC guidance, did NOT contribute to the dot plot, and refused ALL press rate-path questions (deliberate Greenspan-style opacity); Bessent invokes Greenspan (low-rates-into-1990s-tech-boom) to RESIST hikes. macro commentators reaffirms the 2013-taper mechanism (10y 1.5%→3.0%) → higher term/uncertainty premia. Price: 2yr UST hit highest in a year (levels 4.25/4.1875); 10y 4.491%. Counter hardens via Siegel (WisdomTree) joining macro commentators: oil-deflation makes hikes 'off the table this year' — the unresolved hawkish-vs-disinflation split decided by tonight's Micron and future energy prints.Sources: independent channels
- Intraday Jun 24: Bessent goes PUBLIC backing Warsh AND flags inflation 'coming down' (Bloomberg headline) — Treasury aligning with the opacity while signalling a downward trajectory, read by markets as a soft forward-guidance substitute (Treasury not expecting hikes), modest ZN/SR3 bull lean. Directly cuts against macro commentators' hyper-data-sensitive term-premia bear case and is countered by Stifel's new 'running hot' regime call (see running-hot theme).Sources: Bloomberg
- Intraday Jun 24 PM: Apollo (via Bond Beat) flags a genuine NARRATIVE INVERSION — the 'lower oil = lower inflation = hold' read is being challenged by 'lower oil = more consumer demand = overheating = higher inflation', now POSITIVELY correlating rates and oil (driven by hot April CPI, May payrolls, hawkish Fed). macro commentators/Bond Beat/ING/UBS all in the 'hikes overdone' camp; Apollo the dissent. CME ~2/3 July hike priced; BofA calls 3 hikes in final 4 meetings of 2026. Goolsbee: inflation 'well above target and going the wrong way.' UBS adds a Fed-independence-PERCEPTION risk leg — Bessent's endorsement + Warsh's need to deny being Trump's 'sock puppet'. Redbook +10% YoY (strongest since end-2022), Mfg PMI flash 55.7 corroborate resilient demand.Sources: Apollo, UBS, independent channels
- Jun 23: Greenspan died at 100 — Bloomberg draws five explicit lines to Warsh (communication opacity, LTCM-1998/AI-capex parallel, Greenspan Put→moral hazard, the 'conundrum' of short-end-up/long-end-flat, mandate-fulfilment standard); Bessent praises the 'open-mind Maestro.' JWS frames June FOMC as 'purely orthodox, manifests as hawkish purely because of data' — three structural tails: radical-orthodox (stronger USD/flatter), radical-but-messy (Fed Put removed→term premium up/curve steeper), dovish-flip (trimmed-mean PCE→curve steeper/weaker USD). Barth scores debut 7/8, names July/Sep/Dec FF futures as 'attractive shorts.' New quant: SFRU6 ~50bp hikes, terminal ~4.5%, 2s10s swap at 0 = market's neutral estimate; 2s10s cash hit 24.4bp low (BMO target 15.9bp). Waller speaking this week; May PCED Thu the 3.3%-vs-MS-3.0% test.Sources: Bloomberg, BMO, independent channels
- Intraday Jun 23: macro commentators adds the transmission mechanism for why no-forward-guidance lifts the LONG END — the 2013 taper-tantrum natural experiment (10yr 1.5%→3.0% in one summer once Bernanke floated tapering). 'Moving from something to nothing has to mean higher interest rate volatility' → hyper-data-sensitive market → higher risk/term premia → structurally higher long-end yields. Counter-signal intraday: 10yr ~4.49% (off 4.503%) on the equity-selloff safe-haven bid. Fred's Corner adds CRE as a Warsh transmission channel: higher-for-longer → cap-rate/bank-lending stress (office/retail impaired, data centres/logistics resilient).Sources: independent channels
- Intraday Jun 23 PM: a concrete dovish counter-call hardens — macro commentators calls Fed funds to FINISH 2026 at 3.25-3.50% (CUTS not hikes), arguing BLS shows >60% of the recent inflation uptick was energy-driven and oil -30% over 11 weeks erodes the inflation base, so Warsh 'has no case to hike' and his silence lets data do the work. Pricing context: Sep 16 +25bp now FULLY priced; Jul 29 peaked 43% (from 6% pre-June-FOMC), BMO calls >1-in-3 July 'stretched.' $69bn 2yr auction ('TWOSday') is today's intraday supply event; 2yr stochastics crossed for lower rates.Sources: BMO, independent channels
- Jun 21-22: five independent frameworks (LB Macro, Thematic Markets, Bond Beat aggregating BAML/Barclays/BMO/DB/ING/MS/Nordea/UBS/Yardeni, Capital Wars/macro commentators, JWS) now CONVERGE on a genuine hawkish regime change; macro commentators the credible lone dissenter (Warsh wants markets to tighten for him, taper-tantrum analog, next move a CUT, CPI the trigger). NEW: JWS 'Central Casting' framework splits the move into credibility-premium unwind + concrete hike repricing, maps the five task forces to five structural scenarios (orthodox/radical hawk vs dovish data-redefinition flip), resolution post-midterms — 'tactically yes, structurally no… he's told us he won't [stay the chair he was Wednesday]', terminal fair value ~4.5-5%, own gamma not the flattener. BMO 2s10s next target 15.9bp, 5s30s nearing 60bp 'pain trade'. $183bn supply week (Tue 2s/Wed 5s/Thu 7s) the near-term test.Sources: BMO, independent channels
- Intraday Jun 22: hawkish repricing gets data-level confirmation — LB Macro's proprietary US inflation heatmap 'flashed red'; headline inflation confirmed 4.2% (fastest in 3yr). CME FedWatch now quantifies a front-loaded path: Jul 39%, Sep 74%, Oct 78%, Dec 90% vs pre-FOMC baseline of December-first. 9/18 officials backed a hike, 6 backed multiple 2026 hikes. DXY at fresh 13-month high on rising real yields (LB Macro). NEW catalyst added: May PCE Thursday Jun 26.Sources: Business Insider, independent channels
- Intraday Jun 22 PM: post-FOMC specifics harden. SEP dots median 2026 funds 3.4%→3.8%, core PCE 2.7%→3.3%, 9/18 pencil hikes. BofA outlier: 3 hikes/75bp then no cuts until 2028. Yardeni odds Jul 38%/Sep 92%. Yardeni: Warsh called inflation 'a choice', will look THROUGH Iran supply-side disinflation. NEW mechanism via macro commentators (Capital Wars): Warsh won't use funds rate as primary tool — AI capex rate-insensitive, higher rates create fiscal income-transfer offset, housing weak vs buoyant Wall St — so a STRONGER DOLLAR is his elegant tightening vehicle. MS (via Bond Beat): 'noisiest US front end in a generation' — short statement, little guidance, small balance sheet = Greenspan-era regime where 2Y drives the curve. RMP -75% from peak; flattening 'dramatic'.Sources: Morgan Stanley, BofA, independent channels
- Jun 21: weekend post-mortem adds named detail to the already-logged hawkish-regime convergence. Thematic Markets 'The Velvet Glove' — Warsh mentioned inflation/price-stability 16x in 45min, structural-change refs >20x; explicitly recommends July/Sep/Dec SOFR shorts, 2s10s flatteners, long USD. Bloomberg: the 131-word statement is ITSELF the hawkish signal (form>substance). macro commentators voices the regime-break satirically. macro commentators 'Warsh Won't Hike' restated as the lone dissent (taper-tantrum playbook, MoM CPI 'nothing worrying', next move a cut — but concedes the move is short-end-only, 'not enough to get stocks to fall'). $183bn 2s/5s/7s supply (Tue/Wed/Thu) is the week's first demand test; Monday Treasury open the early tell.Sources: Bloomberg, independent channels
- Jun 18-20: full SEP/dots now in hand and the institutional split is set. Unanimous 12-0 hold; statement just 131 words (lowest since Greenspan Jan 2002), easing bias removed, Warsh submitted NO own dot, five new task forces (communications, balance sheet, data, productivity/jobs, inflation frameworks). SEP hawkish: 2026 core PCE 3.3% (+0.6pp), 2026 median dot 3.75% (+38bp), 9 of 18 favour ≥1 hike; first hike priced Oct, 34-45bp/12mo (BAML ~45). 2y +14bp to 4.19-4.20% (highest since Feb 2025), 2s/10s collapsed 38→24bp. Warsh framing: 'no trade-off between unemployment and inflation', 'inflation is a choice', job is to prevent 'second-round effects'. SPLIT crystallised: LB Macro +50bp by YE / full hike by Oct; BAML rising-rate risk; Barclays now hold through end-2027 (40% hike odds); MS/ING/UBS hold (MS core PCE 3.0% vs Fed 3.3%). NEW long-end task-force risk: inflation-framework task force could redefine measurement — WolfST: a 3% official target could push 10y to 5.5%. May PCE Jun 26 is the named test (UBS 3.45% core/4.11% headline; BMO: 4-handle reinforces front-end stickiness).Sources: Barclays, Morgan Stanley, independent channels
- Intraday Jun 20: SEP dot plot quantified — median FOMC member now pencils +1 HIKE this year (reversed from a CUT in March), median 2026 funds 3.8% (from 3.4%), PCE median 3.6% / core 3.3% (Macro Mornings). Hardens the macro commentators cuts-next-move call into an explicit divergence vs the median FOMC dot, not just vs Warsh's comms style. Historical receipts cited: 2018 hawkish lean → S&P -19.8%; 2022 cycle → S&P -19.4%, Nasdaq -33%.Sources: independent channels
Upcoming catalysts
- Fed hike (~80% priced ≥25bp by year-end pre-FOMC; dots now push further)
- FOMC — Wallerstein expects possible balance-sheet announcement
- July FOMC — Warsh hike decision (live meeting)
- Treasury to remove 'at least' from forward guidance (JPM) → coupon increases from Feb 2027
- Jackson Hole symposium — Warsh expected to introduce formal framework shifts (guidance/dot-plot reform)
- September FOMC — CME 51.4% priced for a hike to 375-400bp
- BEA annual PCE price revision — UBS est. methodology changes lower measured core PCE ~0.23pp
- Fed rate hike (market/swaps-priced)
- Warsh task force reports (balance sheet likely first)
Part of the Themic macro theme ledger · first detected 2026-06-03 ·
last updated 2026-07-14 · live view →