Europe Equity Rerating Vs US dormant
Europe Equity Rerating Vs US is a macro theme formerly tracked by Themic. A positioning/sentiment re-rating of European equities relative to the US: BofA's fund manager survey shows the most positive Europe-over-US expectation since before the Iran war (47%), a record-since-2007 no-recession reading, corroborated The theme went dormant after 2026-08-21 and is no longer actively updated; its dated ledger is preserved below as an archive.
Thesis (as of 2026-08-21)
A positioning/sentiment re-rating of European equities relative to the US: BofA's fund manager survey shows the most positive Europe-over-US expectation since before the Iran war (47%), a record-since-2007 no-recession reading, corroborated by independent-research argument that the 'Europe in decline' narrative has grown more negative than the data warrant. Mechanism: a rotation-of-flows / relative-sentiment channel bearing on 6E via European risk assets and European equity beta, distinct from the rates-driven fiscal-stress leg.
Development timeline
- Aug 21: the structural-inflow leg reaffirmed with a fresh underhedging angle past the Aug-20 record-EUR200bn-June-inflow / EUR/USD-1.17 entry — ING restates foreigners bought a record EUR200bn of eurozone securities in June (EUR1.1tn over 12mo) and continues to flag European asset managers 'underhedged' on their US holdings, an amplifier if dollar weakness persists; EUR/USD near ING's 1.1700 end-Sept target (resistance 1.1700/1.1790, support 1.1650/60). Fri flash PMIs the next test. Sources: ING.Sources: independent channels
- Aug 21 intraday: a fresh EARNINGS-side leg past the AM record-EUR200bn-inflow / underhedging entry — Goldman (Bell) RAISED her STOXX Europe 600 FY26 EPS growth forecast to 15% from 10% (H1 EPS already +14%), citing resilience despite the energy shock; European equities +54% since Jan 2025 vs S&P +34% (USD terms), inflows at a five-year high. Shifts the re-rating case from pure positioning/sentiment toward an earnings-fundamentals underpin.Sources: Goldman Sachs
- Aug 20 NEW: a fresh European-vs-US equity-sentiment re-rating flagged by two independent sources same day — BofA's fund manager survey shows 47% of managers now expect European stocks to modestly OUTPERFORM the US over the coming year (the most since before the Iran war began in February), with 97% not expecting a European recession (highest reading since 2007); ING's Marieke Blom launched a new weekly 'Europe's Pitch Book' series arguing the 'Europe in decline' narrative has outrun the data. A sentiment/positioning tailwind for European risk assets distinct from the rates-driven europe-sovereign-fiscal-stress theme. Sources: Bloomberg, ING.Sources: Bloomberg, independent channels
- Aug 20 intraday: hard capital-flow evidence landed past the AM BofA-survey / ING-'Europe's Pitch Book' entry — ECB data shows foreigners bought ~EUR1.1tn of eurozone securities over the trailing 12 months, with June alone the LARGEST-EVER monthly purchase of eurozone debt at EUR200bn (ING/Turner). ING separately flags European asset managers structurally 'underhedged' on their US investments — an amplifier if dollar weakness persists. EUR/USD broke higher toward ING's end-Sept 1.17 target (resistance 1.1700/1.1790, support 1.1650/60). Sources: ING.Sources: independent channels
- Aug 20 intraday: a mild COUNTERPOINT to the AM record-inflow/EUR/USD-1.17 leg — European equities fell ~0.4% across majors Thursday and European sovereigns did NOT participate in Wednesday's Treasury rally (unchanged/+1bp), a decoupling attributed to the announcement being US-specific; EUR/USD +0.15% only, ING's 1.1700 resistance untested this window. No challenge to the structural inflow story but no follow-through today. Sources: independent channels.Sources: independent channels