Ipo Boom Cycle dormant
Ipo Boom Cycle is a macro theme formerly tracked by Themic. Whether the 2026 mega-IPO wave (SpaceX/OpenAI/Anthropic et al.) is late-cycle froth or a benign AI-capital-demand cycle. The theme went dormant after 2026-06-26 and is no longer actively updated; its dated ledger is preserved below as an archive.
Thesis (as of 2026-06-26)
Whether the 2026 mega-IPO wave (SpaceX/OpenAI/Anthropic et al.) is late-cycle froth or a benign AI-capital-demand cycle. GS's calibrated read: issuance dollars near records but deal count at historical norm and valuations below 2000/2021 peaks — supply heavy but not euphoric. Mechanism: IPO supply drains liquidity (the bear leg, shared with market-structure-fomo) while AI capital demand is the structural driver (the benign leg). SpaceX price action vs IPO entry is the live FOMO sentiment gauge. Bears on ES (liquidity drain / supply overhang vs benign-capital read).
Development timeline
- Jun 26 NEW: GS (Ben Snider, via GS Exchanges/Briefings) frames the 2026 IPO surge and argues it is NOT yet a bubble — YTD issuance ~$120bn already roughly ties the FULL-YEAR 2021 record at the halfway mark, ~50 cos public (~2x same period 2025), but deal COUNT (~100/yr pace) sits at the historical average, far below 2021 (~250) and 1999 (~400); valuations elevated but below 2000/2021 peaks; primary driver is very large cos + AI capital demand. SpaceX (BI) at $153, only +2% above open-market IPO price after a +19% first-session spike, with retail split between Musk-loyalist holders and a wait-for-lower-valuation camp — the marquee FOMO test. A calibrated counter-narrative to the supply-drain/froth bear case.Sources: Goldman Sachs, Business Insider