UK Labour Market Turn dormant
UK Labour Market Turn is a macro theme formerly tracked by Themic. First genuinely non-contractionary UK labour signal in ~4 years: July KPMG/REC Report on Jobs at 50.0 (permanent placements), temp vacancies rising for the first time in 2 years and pay growth ticking up, ending a hiring downturn dating to The theme went dormant after 2026-08-10 and is no longer actively updated; its dated ledger is preserved below as an archive.
Thesis (as of 2026-08-10)
First genuinely non-contractionary UK labour signal in ~4 years: July KPMG/REC Report on Jobs at 50.0 (permanent placements), temp vacancies rising for the first time in 2 years and pay growth ticking up, ending a hiring downturn dating to the 2022 Truss crisis. Mechanism: a labour-market inflection is modestly GBP-supportive via the BoE-path/rate-differential channel, though breadth of evidence stays soft (broader employment basket still sub-trend). Bears on 6B; secondary SR3-equivalent front-end read.
Development timeline
- Aug 10 (new): the July KPMG/REC Report on Jobs printed a headline 50.0 — the first time in nearly FOUR YEARS the permanent-placements measure hasn't signalled contraction (Lloyds). Bloomberg adds temporary vacancies rose for the first time in two years and pay growth ticked up, ending a hiring downturn stretching back to the 2022 Truss crisis. Lloyds cautions the broader basket of UK employment indicators still runs below its historical average. Modestly 6B-supportive; distinct from the BoE rate-path and Burnham political-risk themes.Sources: Bloomberg, Lloyds