US Growth Trajectory dormant
US Growth Trajectory is a macro theme formerly tracked by Themic. A tactical US growth-data wobble (GDPNow Q2 collapse to 1.2%, SEP trim, elevated supply-chain-pressure index) set against a structural credit-driven bull case (deregulation + fiscal tailwinds). The theme went dormant after 2026-07-06 and is no longer actively updated; its dated ledger is preserved below as an archive.
Thesis (as of 2026-07-06)
A tactical US growth-data wobble (GDPNow Q2 collapse to 1.2%, SEP trim, elevated supply-chain-pressure index) set against a structural credit-driven bull case (deregulation + fiscal tailwinds). Mechanism: near-term slowdown reads dovish for the front-end while the structural bull leg supports risk; a possible Eurozone catch-up is the relative-growth corollary. Bears on ES (growth support/risk) and ZN (near-term dovish crosscurrent).
Development timeline
- Jul 6: new theme — independent research (macro commentators/Macro Mosaic) flags a tactical US slowdown against a structural credit-bull case: Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 slashed to 1.2% SAAR from >3.0% (mostly import-surge distortion, not weakness); FOMC SEP cut real-GDP central tendency to 2.0-2.3% (from 2.2-2.5%), matching Street 2.1% y/y for 2026/2027; NY Fed Supply Chain Pressure Index 'nearly as bad as the initial Covid shock.' Author stays a structural growth bull (credit-driven, deregulation + fiscal) but sees near-term slowdown + possible Eurozone rebound. Single-source, new framework.Sources: Bloomberg, independent channels