RBA Oil Hike Repricing

RBA Oil Hike Repricing is a macro theme tracked by Themic. Rising RBA (and RBNZ) tightening odds driven by the oil-shock inflation channel: as Brent approaches $90, CitiFX lifts RBA year-end hike odds to 82% (from 73%) with AGB 3y/10y yields at six-week highs, and sees NZ CPI upside risk keeping RB As of 2026-10-31, its status is active with medium conviction.

Exposed instruments: 6A, CL, ES

Thesis

Rising RBA (and RBNZ) tightening odds driven by the oil-shock inflation channel: as Brent approaches $90, CitiFX lifts RBA year-end hike odds to 82% (from 73%) with AGB 3y/10y yields at six-week highs, and sees NZ CPI upside risk keeping RBNZ hawkish enough for a September hike. Mechanism: the Iran oil shock transmits into antipodean front-end repricing. Bears on 6A (rate-differential / hike-odds channel); a regional expression of the same energy-shock-into-rates impulse hitting the Fed path.

Development timeline

• 2026-10-31 Oct 31: RBA decision now Tue 3 Nov with Westpac hike-to-4.85% and Lloyds 'more likely than not' (ING also 25bp) — largely priced, so the print itself is low-asymmetry past the Oct-30 ING-call entry. NEW data: Australian private credit +0.6% m/m (above 0.5% exp). Westpac Business Signal: energy shock squeezing margins, one in four businesses constrained (highest in three years). Weak Asia tech + soft metals (copper $6.53/lb -0.85%) are a 6A headwind. No lean.
  Sources: Lloyds, independent channels
• 2026-10-30 Oct 30: ING adds its own 25bp-to-4.85% RBA call for TUE 3 Nov (joining Westpac) with CPI +90bp in two months to 4.3% y/y (fuel-led), past the Oct-29 'Nov hike locked in' entry. BoC leg firmed: ING expects next hike Jan (Dec risk), keeps USD/CAD 1.420, calls 90bp/12m priced too hawkish. Broader DM drift: ING flags CNB 25bp to 4.00% next week a 'done deal', Taiwan Oct CPI ~2.7% strengthening a Dec-hike case, Korea CPI seen 2.8%. Westpac: Q3 AU business conditions weakening (perf gauge -1.3% q/q, debt-service +12.7% y/y), growth slowing to ~1.5% by end-2026, cuts seen from Q3 2027.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-29 Oct 28-29: the antipodean cluster FULLY resolved past the Oct-28 15:54 BoC-hike/ING-cross-flip entry — Westpac now says a November RBA hike is 'LOCKED IN' (85% priced, full hike by year-end), AU 3y/10y +6bp; dwelling-cost inflation moderating faster than expected flags a possible 2027 turning point. RBNZ confirmed as the dovish exception (Q4 inflation seen 4.4%); ING 'lost confidence in NZD outperformance', flips to AUD/NZD higher (>1.260 break 'imminent'). BoC statement 'need to increase further' but 'proceed carefully'; ING keeps USD/CAD at/above 1.40 (upside 1.42), sees next move 1Q27 w/ Dec risk 50:50, calls 90bp/12m priced too hawkish. BoJ Fri: hold expected, Dec hike near-certain in swaps; Bloomberg Economics sees Dec/Mar/Jul hikes ending at 2%.
  Sources: Bloomberg, independent channels
• 2026-10-29 Oct 29: Westpac Business Signal adds a margin-squeeze data point past the Oct-28/29 'Nov hike locked in' entry — Q3 business gauge -1.3% q/q on fuel and wages, debt-servicing costs +12.7% y/y; Westpac keeps a 25bp RBA hike to 4.85% in November with a risk of another in February, and flags an adverse scenario of oil to ~$150/bbl. Reaffirms the oil-into-supply-chains hike mechanism; rate path supportive but growth outlook weaker.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-29 Oct 29: macro commentators cites 'very hawkish' RBA talk after persistent inflation, with the RBA decision in the week of 2 Nov (Macrobond) — reaffirms the Oct-28/29 'Nov hike locked in' read, now with the decision explicitly next week. AUD lean supportive. No new price/odds detail beyond the hawkish tone.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-28 Oct 28: Australia Sep CPI printed HOT past the Oct-27 BoC-added/hold-now-hike-later entry — headline 0.8% m/m (vs 0.7% exp), 4.3% y/y (from 4.0%); trimmed mean 0.3% m/m / 3.6% y/y in line, Q3 TM 1.0% q/q / 3.7% y/y, but 6m-annualised TM 4.0% the FASTEST in series. Westpac (Ellis): RBA hikes at the Nov meeting, further hikes beyond NOT base case, Feb risk higher. AUD outperformed Tue. RBNZ: Bloomberg's link says it HELD unexpectedly and NZD fell (vs ING's 25bp-hike call; headline-only, unverified). BoC +25bp expected today.
  Sources: Bloomberg, independent channels
• 2026-10-28 Oct 28 intraday: RBNZ surprise RESOLVED the unverified morning item — unexpected HOLD on a 4-3 vote against a >70% priced hike, statement says tighter policy 'likely to be required', NZD fell (Handelsbanken/Lloyds) — past the Oct-28 05:34 hot-AU-CPI/headline-only-RBNZ entry. AU CPI detail (Westpac): fuel +9.4% m/m, holiday travel +8.0/+7.2%, housing moderating faster than expected; Westpac keeps Nov RBA hike, near-term inflation risk to the upside. BoC today a genuine COIN-FLIP (Lloyds): economists ~50/50 on 25bp vs ~80% market-priced — hold risk higher than implied. RBNZ dovish surprise is an NZD, not AUD, negative.
  Sources: Handelsbanken, Lloyds, independent channels
• 2026-10-28 Oct 28 intraday: BoC leg resolved and ING flips the antipodean cross call, past the Oct-28 11:04 RBNZ-hold/BoC-coin-flip entry — BoC HIKED +25bp to 2.50% (~80% priced), statement flags stronger growth + rebounding oil-and-gas capex, 'could be the need to increase further' but 'proceed carefully'; ING sees next move 1Q27 (Jan preferred), 2.75% terminal, calls market's ~90bp/12m too hawkish. ING on NZ: RBNZ doves (incl Gov Breman) outweighed 3 hawks, 4Q26 CPI seen 4.4%, real rate -1.4% assuming a Dec hike to 3.0%; AUD/NZD break >1.260 'imminent', NZD/USD YE 0.570 with downside risk, USD/CAD YE unchanged (upside to 1.420).
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-27 Oct 27: the 'hold-now-hike-later' antipodean cluster firms into this week's prints past the Oct-26 Hunter-'not-quite-done' entry — RBNZ ~fully priced +25bp Wed, RBA Nov hike ~15bp priced, Australia Sep CPI (trimmed mean +0.3% m/m exp) Wed with RBA officials before the Senate; AUD/USD >0.7020, AUD/NZD 1.23-1.237. China CCP fifth plenum (Tue-Thu) the swing for 6A/metals (copper 6.46). High equity-beta is the risk to AUD into the AI unwind.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-27 Oct 27 intraday: RBNZ leg firmed past the Oct-27 05:24 hold-now-hike-later entry — ING expects RBNZ +25bp to 3.0% Wed (consensus and pricing in line), with a HAWKISH tone and ~100bp priced over 12m, but sees LIMITED further NZD upside (4Q NZD/USD fcst 0.570) given the firm USD into FOMC. Handelsbanken ties the cluster to 'inflation broadening – rate hikes drawing closer'; Lloyds: tightening financial conditions the common thread.
  Sources: Lloyds, Handelsbanken, independent channels
• 2026-10-27 Oct 27 intraday: BoC added to the hold-now-hike-later week — macro commentators expects a BoC +25bp hike Wed MORNING, before the Fed stands pat; AUD +0.2%/NZD +0.4% this morning against a firmer USD. Slots alongside the RBNZ-firmed/RBA-Nov legs already logged as another antipodean/DM tightening data point.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-26 Oct 26 (Mon): fresh official hawkish signal + the oil-into-supply-chains mechanism past the Oct-24 RBNZ-hike/week-ahead entry — Assistant RBA Governor Hunter (60 Minutes) said the RBA is 'not quite yet' done fighting inflation; Westpac notes the RBA is seeing oil embed in supply chains (links the oil-shock channel directly to the hike case). AUD extended its weekly advance; mild upside bias into Australia Sep CPI Wed. China Fifth Plenum (Mon-Thu) a swing factor for 6A/metals.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-24 Oct 24 (Sat): week-ahead catalysts set + China-plenum overlay past the Fri RBNZ-hike/Luci-Ellis entry — Australia Q3 CPI + RBA Senate appearance this week; RBNZ decision (Westpac expects a hike); China Fifth Plenum (26-29 Oct) a fresh 6A/metals driver. 6A no strong lean in these sources — caught between domestic hawkish repricing and risk-off/metals-weakness + plenum headline risk.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-23 Oct 23 (Fri): RBNZ call firms to a hike + AU guidance framing past the Oct-22 Hauser-'materially worse' entry — Westpac now explicitly expects RBNZ to HIKE at its October meeting (per its weekly); Luci Ellis ('Open mouth operations') frames the RBA as running commentary/soft guidance without forward guidance. Next week: Australia Q3 CPI + RBA Senate appearance, RBNZ decision. 6A caught between domestic hawkish repricing and the risk-off/metals-weakness headwind (copper -2.8% two days).
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-22 Oct 22 (Thu): Hauser confirmed as the catalyst past the Oct-21 'materially worse' intraday entry — RBA Deputy Gov Hauser's 'materially worse than August' inflation line has lifted market odds of a NOVEMBER follow-up hike (Westpac). RBNZ: ING still expects a 25bp hike next week barring an NZ Q3 CPI downside (consensus 3.8% from 4.1%; print not yet in sources), and sees NZD recovering vs AUD. No net price levels beyond 6A supportive.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-21 Oct 21 (Wed): Hauser hawkish tilt + NZ catalyst past the Oct-20 hot-CPI entry — RBA Deputy Gov Hauser says Australia's inflation outlook is 'materially worse' than the August forecast (Lloyds), a hawkish signal for AUD. ING flags NZD upside vs AUD; NZ Q3 CPI overnight (ING exp 3.8% y/y vs RBNZ 3.9%) is the catalyst, with an RBNZ 25bp hike expected next week (market 18-21bp priced).
  Sources: Lloyds, independent channels
• 2026-10-20 Oct 20 (Tue): hot Sept CPI hardens the hawkish repricing past the Oct-19 soft-jobs/mildly-hawkish-minutes entry — Westpac: Sept monthly CPI +0.62% m/m, 4.1% y/y (from 4.0%), trimmed mean 3.6% y/y; Q4 CPI raised to 1.3% q/q / 3.9% y/y (+0.8ppt), 'momentum meaningfully above RBA expectations'. AUD +0.6% Mon (2nd straight gain) also on the China GDP beat and firmer copper/iron ore. Lean modestly higher 6A, exposed to credit/risk-off.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-19 Oct 19 (Mon): Westpac sharpens the soft-jobs-vs-hawkish-RBA tension past the Oct-16 Sep-jobs (-39.3k) entry — AUD/USD fell to 0.6894 (lowest since July) on Sep employment -39.3k vs +20k exp, UR 4.7%, NAB confidence 'fell sharply', profitability weakest since 2020; AUD steadied above 0.6950. Yet RBA Sep minutes read 'mildly hawkish', only +5bp priced for Nov, and Westpac RAISED its Dec-quarter CPI forecast to 1.3% q/q / 3.9% y/y, 'meaningfully above the RBA's current expectations.' China GDP beat a modest offset. Single bank source; Hauser Wed 21 Oct the swing.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-16 Oct 16: cross-asset headwinds compound the stagflationary tension past the Oct-15 Sep-jobs (-39.3k, UR 4.7%) entry — Westpac Nowcast Q3 GDP +0.5% q/q (2.1% y/y), momentum fading Aug/Sep with growth narrow (business investment), market PARED RBA tightening; iron ore briefly <US$90/t and copper weaker on the AI sell-off, AUD underperformed. Westpac (Ellis, 'Cost-Plus Costs'): firms passing through costs signals demand>supply, which the RBA will read hawkishly — still expects a Nov hike.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-15 Oct 15: hard jobs data firms the stagflationary tension past the Oct-13 NAB-confidence revival — Australia Sep employment -39.3k (cons ~+20k, prior +29.3k), participation 66.8% (from 67.0%), unemployment 4.7% (4.72%, a new cycle high). Westpac reads part as an August unwind + survey-design seasonality and STILL expects a 25bp RBA hike in November (peak unemployment 4.8% by mid-2027). Two-way 6A: soft jobs vs hawkish RBA, with the global risk-off and copper -1.15% as added headwinds.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-13 Oct 13 REVIVAL: a domestic-data leg flips the character past the oil-driven hike-odds read — NAB Sep business confidence -4 to -13 (sharpest fall since March), conditions steady at -1 (weakest since 2020); consumer confidence near recession lows after the Sept RBA hike, yet Westpac still expects ANOTHER hike in Nov. The tension is now stagflationary: soft domestic data vs a hiking RBA. AUD/USD ~0.698 testing top of downtrend; a hot US CPI sends it back to lows (Westpac). RBA minutes today, jobs Thu (+20k, 4.6% exp).
  Sources: Bloomberg, independent channels
• 2026-10-07 Oct 7: a fresh dovish-at-the-margin data point past the Oct-6 Westpac-Nov-hike-call source-split — Westpac (Hassan) consumer sentiment -4.7% in October to a 'very low level', a steep drop after the Sept RBA hike with 'extremely weak' sub-groups, adding to the high-bar case for a back-to-back November hike. AUD gained Tue on USD softness despite the weak sentiment.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-06 Oct 6: a SOURCE SPLIT on the November call past the Oct-5 'high-bar/~20% Nov' entry — Westpac now expects a November follow-up hike, directly against Asia Macro Pulse's high-bar/Q4-CPI-dependent read (market ~20% Nov, ~40% by year-end). AUD outperformed USD on Monday despite the broad dollar bid (Westpac), aided by softer Fed-tightening expectations lifting base metals (copper 6.59).
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-05 Oct 5: a modestly LESS-hawkish November read past the Oct-2 'RBA signalled more if needed' entry — independent research (Asia Macro Pulse) says the bar for a back-to-back November hike is HIGH after the Sept 25bp to 4.60%, with Q4 CPI the key trigger. Market now prices Nov hike ~20%, hike-by-year-end ~40%, ~30bp by H1-2027; oil still cited as the main materialised inflation upside risk. 6A mildly less hawkish at the margin.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-02 Oct 2: RBA signalled MORE if needed after this week's 25bp to 4.60% (Westpac/ING) — a hawkish-lean confirmation past the Oct-1 scaled-back-November entry — but against deteriorating domestic data: Aug CPI accelerated, dwelling prices -1.1% m/m in Sept, job vacancies -0.9% q/q. The 'hawkish CB vs weak housing/jobs' split leaves 6A mixed/risk-sensitive with no strong directional lean (digest).
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-10-01 Oct 1: the market scaled back November hike odds and AUD kept slipping (sub-0.70) past the Sep-30 soft-Aug-CPI entry — despite Westpac still expecting a November hike. Fresh domestic-weakness data: Cotality national home values -1.1% m/m (flat y/y; top-end Sydney -10.7% y/y), dwelling approvals -6.1% m/m, Q3 job vacancies -0.9% q/q (private -2.0%). RBA 4.60% now framed as a floor; 6A bearish skew near-term.
  Sources: Bloomberg, independent channels
• 2026-09-30 Sep 30: Aug CPI landed SLIGHTLY SOFT vs consensus past the Sep-29 dovish-tinged 4.60% hike — headline 0.4% m/m / 4.0% y/y (from 3.5%; cons 0.5%), trimmed mean 0.2% m/m / 3.6% y/y (cons 0.3%). Despite the soft trim, Westpac still expects a NOVEMBER RBA hike. 6A supported by hike expectations; a slightly-below-street print tempers the immediate hawkish add.
  Sources: Bloomberg, independent channels
• 2026-09-29 Sep 29: decision-day data softens the domestic case against a fully-priced hike past the Sep-28 August-jobs/UE-4.6% entry — Aug household spending 0.0% m/m (6.8% y/y; services -0.3%, discretionary -0.3%, fuel-driven) confirms consumer softness alongside UE at 4.6% (highest since 2021). Consensus still 25bp to 4.60% today (ING/Westpac/Lloyds); market ~50% for a Nov hike. ING expects a HAWKISH hike (AUD-supportive, 0.720 year-end target); Westpac sees Aug CPI Wed at 4.0% y/y (from 3.5%) — the decisive follow-through. AUD pressured by US yields, AUD/JPY 110.70.
  Sources: Lloyds, independent channels
• 2026-09-29 Sep 29 RESOLVED (dovish-tinged hike): RBA raised 25bp to 4.60% but Bullock said BOTH a hold and a hike were considered, was more balanced on the path, and hoped four hikes are 'restrictive enough' (Bloomberg/Lloyds/ING); said bond moves were not disorderly. AUD/USD broke below 0.700 (ING). 16bp of further hikes priced by year-end (ING: fair); Nov back-to-back probability ~60% (ING: too high). Lloyds calls the tone 'mildly negative' for AUD. ING keeps the 0.720 Dec target but flags increased near-term downside; Aug CPI Wed is the next test.
  Sources: Bloomberg, Lloyds, independent channels
• 2026-09-28 Sep 28 intraday: labour-market cooling-at-the-margin enters against the priced hike past the Sep-25 Lloyds +25bp-to-4.60% target — Australian August employment rose 39.5k BUT unemployment climbed to 4.6% from 4.5% (highest since 2021) as participation outpaces demand (Westpac flags directly). RBA hike to 4.60% still fully priced for tomorrow (Westpac + ING); ING expects Bullock to keep the door open for more on elevated inflation/tight labour/above-expectation growth. Westpac's Wed CPI forecast 4.0% y/y (July 3.5%), a touch below the ~4.1% street. AUD/JPY -1.1% to 110.70, AUD/NZD hit 13-yr high 1.2491 then pulled back on RBNZ Willis hawkishness. ING targets AUD/USD 0.720 by year-end.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-09-25 Sep 25: ING's Asia-week-ahead reaffirms Tuesday's RBA 25bp hike as base case past the Westpac asymmetric-upside note, and now pins August CPI seen ACCELERATING to 4.1% YoY as the concrete supporting print.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-09-25 Sep 25 intraday: Lloyds hardens the call from base-case to a specific target — RBA +25bp to 4.60% expected Tuesday (past the morning Aug-CPI-4.1% supporting-print entry).
  Sources: Lloyds
• 2026-09-24 Sep 24: Westpac's Luci Ellis argues the RBA's supply-capacity assumptions are systematically more downbeat than Treasury's, implying asymmetric UPSIDE risk to RBA forecasts — a hawkish-leaning context piece into Tuesday's RBA decision.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-09-21 Sep 21: AUD/USD steadied above 0.7100 (recovered from a one-month low of 0.7075); AUD/NZD at 13-year highs (1.2459). RBA 29-Sep hike odds now 80-90% (Westpac), with Bullock, Hunter and board member Ross all speaking Tuesday and Aug labour data Thursday (unemployment seen steady 4.5%) as the swing inputs into the meeting.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-09-18 Sep 18: Westpac (Luci Ellis) brings its RBA hike call FORWARD to the 29 Sep meeting (from November), citing escalated RBA communication — Governor Bullock today flagged upside inflation risks 'appeared to be materialising', the specific condition Westpac had set. Split vote still expected, with follow-up-hike risk on post-meeting data. The window's cleanest new dated FX catalyst, now nine days out. Single-source. Sources: Westpac IQ.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-09-15 Sep 15: AUD/USD gave back ~1c from last week's cycle high 0.7238 (Wed) to 0.7140-50 as the oil/yields risk-off overwhelmed the hawkish RBA repricing (Hunter + Hauser both hawkish last week). AUD/NZD fresh 13yr-plus high 1.2375 on a less-hawkish RBNZ; AUD/JPY round-tripped from a 35yr high 115.00 (28 Aug) to 110.00 on the USD/JPY reversal. NEW structural hawkish leg: Westpac data-centre note puts Australia's AI/data-centre pipeline at ~$175bn (front-loaded vs the LNG boom) + ~$50bn potential renewables — cited as supporting a pre-29-Sep hike then hold through H2-2027. Bullock testimony Fri 18 Sep next catalyst. Sources: Westpac.
• 2026-09-11 Sep 11: Westpac's base case now formally has a NOVEMBER RBA hike back in (past the two-hawkish-members / month-end-hike-pre-commit entry), keeping 6A a bullish-lean context play; AUD supported by the widening RBA-vs-others tightening gap. Sources: Westpac.
• 2026-09-10 Sep 10 (intraday): fresh explicit hawkish-guidance leg — TWO RBA members turned explicitly hawkish overnight, effectively pre-committing to a month-end hike, with the market now pricing TWO further hikes beyond that (macro commentators). Advances past the Sep 9 'fully priced year-end hike + ~80% March' read; the driver is now official rhetoric, not just the oil channel. RBA decision ~29 Sept. Sources: independent channels.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-09-09 Sep 9: markets now FULLY price another RBA hike by year-end (matching Westpac's own call) plus ~80% odds of a follow-up in March 2027 — full pricing achieved, not just directional drift. Handelsbanken flags AUD outperforming NZD in G10 as RBA is seen hiking further while RBNZ stays cautious. AUD/USD holding the 0.72-handle. Sources: Westpac, Handelsbanken.
  Sources: Handelsbanken, independent channels
• 2026-09-08 Sep 8: Westpac moved a November RBA hike (+25bp to 4.60%) back to base case — driven by a resilient household sector and a bigger-than-expected data-centre investment growth boost, NOT the oil channel — even as Aug NAB business conditions fell to a pandemic-low -1 and confidence slid to -8. AUD/USD on the 0.72-handle, first since early May. Sources: Westpac.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-09-04 Sep 4: FIRST dovish crack after the ~70% Sept-hike build — RBA Chief Economist Hunter's comments, alongside Fed's Waller, prompted markets to pare tightening expectations on both sides of the Pacific; Australian bond yields fell with US yields, AUD reclaimed the 0.72 handle. A modest counter-signal, no explicit new hike-odds number given. Sources: Westpac.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-09-03 Sep 3: swap-market Sept RBA hike pricing built to ~70% (from ~50/50 two days ago), Westpac's Morning Report notes, with Australian government bond yields rising sharply overnight on the back of it — the firmer Q2 GDP (0.4%q/2.1%y vs RBA's 1.9%y) plus the unit-labour-cost uptick 'adding to the Board's unease' into the 29 Sept meeting. Sources: Westpac.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-09-02 Sep 2: Q2 GDP landed FIRMER than the RBA expected — +0.4%qtr / 2.1%yr vs RBA's implied 1.9%yr (Westpac had 0.3%), though H1 pace ~1.5% annualised (from ~2.8% H2-2025). Domestic demand slowed sharply (business investment fell post data-centre surge) but household disposable income surprised UP +0.6%qtr (vs -0.3% forecast) with savings ratio rising; unit labour costs ticked to 3.6%yr (from 3.2%) on flat productivity. Westpac: adds to Board 'unease' into the Sept meeting; RBNZ (25bp to 2.75% exp) / BoC (hold exp) due today. Sources: Westpac.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-09-02 Sep 2 (2nd window): Westpac's full Q2 national accounts added housing/dwelling construction +1.6%qtr/+5.8%yr — a firm, previously-unquantified number consistent with the 'resilient but uneven' read, a marginal add to the modestly-hawkish RBA lean. Overnight regional catalysts closed out: RBNZ delivered the expected 25bp hike to 2.75% (ING calls it a 'dovish hike'), BoC held at 2.25% ('dovish hold amid tariff mayhem', core anchored ~1.9-2.0% vs 3.0% headline). Sources: Westpac, ING.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-09-02 Sep 2 (3rd window): the RBNZ side of the antipodean leg resolved DOVISH — NZD fell 1.2% despite the expected 25bp hike to 2.75%, on dovish post-decision guidance, with NZ equities catching a bid on the same read (undercutting the 'RBNZ hawkish enough for further hikes' framing). AUD leg unchanged. Sources: independent channels.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-09-01 Sep 1: Westpac data run sharpens the two-speed picture — AUD held as sole G10 gainer vs USD last week (fresh high 0.7208, pared ~0.716 post-Warsh), RBA Sept-hike pricing ~50/50, full hike by November. AGAINST that, a deepening DOMESTIC housing/credit downturn: Cotality national home values -0.9% m/m (3rd straight decline, 93% of capital-city suburbs falling; Sydney -4.6%yr, Melbourne -4.7%yr), dwelling approvals -3.6% m/m, investor credit growth at a 2-yr low 0.46% m/m. Westpac nudged Q2 GDP nowcast to +0.3% q/q (from +0.2%) on net exports. Wed Q2 GDP + same-day RBNZ (25bp hike to 2.75% exp) / BoC (hold exp) the tests. Sources: Westpac.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-09-01 Sep 1 (2nd window): the Australian benchmark bond yield jumped to a level last seen in 2011 — part of the global yield shock (Theme 1), adding a domestic-rates dimension atop the housing correction; Bloomberg's 'One of the World's Longest Housing Booms Is Cracking in Sydney' feature reinforces (no new hard data) the domestic-downturn side of the two-sided setup into tomorrow's Q2 GDP + same-day RBNZ (25bp to 2.75% exp)/BoC (hold exp). Sources: Bloomberg.
  Sources: Bloomberg
• 2026-08-31 Aug 31 (2nd window): Westpac put fresh detail on the antipodean leg — AUD hit a fresh 8-week high 0.7208 Fri on HOT July CPI (headline +1.0% m/m, trimmed mean +0.5% m/m, both above exp) + hawkish RBA minutes, then reversed to 0.7156 post-Warsh; still the only G10 gainer vs USD last week. RBA Sept-hike odds ~50%, a full hike priced by November (Westpac base case: NO November hike). Counter: July private credit eased to 0.6% m/m, housing credit weakest since Mar-2025, investor credit a 2-yr low — soft lead-in to Wed Q2 GDP (Westpac +0.2% q/q vs 0.3% consensus).
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-08-28 Aug 28: market pricing ran further AHEAD of both house views past the Aug-27 54%/28bp entries — markets now FULLY price an RBA hike before year-end (from 50% start-of-week; ING 28bp, +15bp since Monday). Westpac's Luci Ellis pushes back explicitly: one hot monthly CPI isn't enough given the noisy monthly series + new-financial-year repricing, judges NOVEMBER more plausible than September (Sept meeting falls the day before Aug CPI), either outcome a split MPB vote. ING house call also stays hold, expects the 12bp priced for the 29 Sept meeting to unwind. AU bonds kept falling. Sources: Westpac, ING, Handelsbanken.
  Sources: Handelsbanken, independent channels
• 2026-08-28 Aug 28 (2nd window): two independent GDP previews reinforced the HOLD case against near-full market hike pricing past the AM full-year-priced/Ellis-pushback entry — Westpac (Bustamante) sees Q2 GDP +0.2% q/q / +1.7% y/y ('growth in the slow lane', demand skewed to high-import EVs/data-centre kit/aircraft dragging net exports, productivity -0.2% q/q); ING (Asia Week Ahead) more downbeat at 1.8% y/y on housing weakness, 'continues to lean towards the RBA remaining on hold'. Both point to a soft-ish Wednesday print that supports the hold camp; AUD this week's G10 winner (+~0.35% vs USD, Handelsbanken). Sources: Westpac, ING, Handelsbanken.
  Sources: Handelsbanken, independent channels
• 2026-08-27 Aug 27: July CPI printed HOTTER past the Aug-25 AUD-decoupling entry — headline 1.0% m/m (vs Westpac 0.8%/consensus 0.9%), annual eased to 3.5% from 3.8% on base effects; trimmed mean 0.5% m/m (vs 0.4% exp), annual held 3.6%; market services ex-volatiles 0.9% m/m/3.3% y/y (down from June 3.7%). macro commentators: RBA NOVEMBER hike odds jumped to 45% from ~25% pre-release, AUD +0.25% on the day, ASX -0.4% on the beat. Westpac house view UNCHANGED — durable goods + household-services timing/sales effects drove the upside more than housing, and with softer labour/wages the RBA still seen on HOLD for the rest of 2026. Q2 private capex / July household spending due today; Q2 GDP Sept 2 the next swing. Sources: Westpac, macro commentators, Lloyds.
  Sources: Lloyds, independent channels
• 2026-08-27 Aug 27 (2nd window): the capex print CUT AGAINST the hot-CPI hawkish repricing logged this morning — Q2 private capex fell 3.6% q/q (Westpac forecast flat, consensus +0.8%), the weakest since June 2020, on an 8.9% q/q machinery & equipment drop as IT&T investment unwound 53% q/q (still +93.5% y/y); buildings & structures +2.1% cushioned. Offsetting: July household spending ran hot +7% y/y (ING). Australian bonds kept falling as traders bring hike bets forward; ING now prices 28bp of RBA hikes by year-end (up ~15bp this week) but keeps its house HOLD call and 0.730 AUD/USD year-end target. Genuinely two-sided now. Sources: Westpac, ING, Handelsbanken.
  Sources: Handelsbanken, independent channels
• 2026-08-27 Aug 27 (3rd window): hawkish repricing got a firmer NUMBER past the AM capex-miss-vs-hot-spending entry — strong household spending lifted RBA September hike odds to a specific 54% (macro commentators), with the ASX -1.0% overnight on the repricing. Extends beyond this morning's 45%/28bp-by-year-end framing. Sources: independent channels.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-08-26 Aug 26: July monthly CPI printed HOT — headline 1.0% m/m (Westpac 0.8%/mkt 0.9%), annual eased to 3.5% on base effects; trimmed mean 0.5% m/m (vs 0.4%), annual held 3.6% (above both Westpac and mkt 3.5%); market services ex-volatiles 0.9% m/3.3% y still above RBA's 3% comfort zone. Lifts November hike risk but Westpac keeps its on-hold-2026 base case on softer labour/wages. 6A bullish lean firms modestly.
  Sources: Lloyds, independent channels
• 2026-08-25 Aug 25: AUD rally decoupled further from the rate story past the Aug-24 soft-labour entry — AUD hit fresh cycle highs ~0.7180 Friday (+0.85%) on weak USD/gold/Asian-FX/mining-dividend season, NOT RBA hawkishness, then eased 0.3% to 0.7150 overnight ahead of RBA minutes today; underlying data confirms Q2 wage growth slowed 3.2% y/y. Minutes today + trimmed-mean CPI (consensus 3.5% y/y) Wed the swings against a softer domestic backdrop. Sources: Westpac.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-08-25 Aug 25 (2nd window): ING refined the CPI consensus into tomorrow's print past the AM AUD-decoupling entry — July headline seen slowing 3.8%->3.3%, trimmed mean 3.6%->3.5%; ING stays constructive AUD/USD, notes its 0.72 end-3Q target 'nearly reached sooner than expected' and sees a move above the May 0.7260-70 highs achievable before year-end, though Bullock's hawkish rhetoric + ~50% year-end hike pricing leave limited room for a dovish surprise to move the pair further on its own. Sources: ING.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-08-24 Aug 24: the domestic backdrop turned SOFTER past the Aug-21 ~50%-hike-odds/soft-labour entry — July labour confirmed unemployment rising to 4.5% and wage growth slowing to 3.2% y/y, cutting against the oil-driven hike case even as AUD/USD hit fresh highs ~0.7180 on USD weakness/gold/mining dividends (FX now decoupled from the rate read). RBA minutes Tue + CPI Wed the swings, now against a softer domestic picture. Sources: Westpac, ING.
• 2026-08-21 Aug 21: the market REPRICED the RBA hike path past the Aug-20 soft-labour-print entry — this-year further-hike probability eased to ~50% and AU yields fell 4-5bp across the curve on the -15.8k employment / 4.5% unemployment print. Westpac's final Q2 Nowcast still shows +0.2%q/q GDP with 2026 technical-recession probability down to 3.5% (from 6.0%) — resilience alongside softening, which Westpac reads as letting the RBA stay inflation-focused without hard-landing worry. Sources: Westpac.
  Sources: independent channels
• 2026-08-20 Aug 20: the flagged live catalyst LANDED soft, confirming the fading-hike drift past the Aug-19 Q2-WPI-in-line entry — July Labour Force Survey: employment -15.8k (vs +80.2k prior), unemployment UP to 4.5% (from 4.4%), participation down to 66.9%; hours worked -0.6% m/m, annual growth just 0.2%; underemployment eased 0.1ppt to 6.4% on a rising trend. Westpac reads a labour market drifting toward spare capacity; Lloyds: 'softer Aussie employment report raises the bar for further RBA tightening.' The oil-hike thesis is now decisively on the dovish side. Sources: Westpac, Lloyds.
  Sources: Lloyds, independent channels
• 2026-08-19 Aug 19: the fading-hike thesis got its wage confirmation past the Aug-18 July-CPI-preview entry — Q2 Wage Price Index printed 0.8%qtr/3.2%yr, IN LINE with consensus/Westpac and slightly below the RBA's own 3.3%yr projection; private-sector wages decelerated to their softest pace since Q4 2021. Consumer sentiment +6% in August on rate-outlook clarity (housing still below average). Thursday's labour force survey the next test. Sources: Westpac.
  Sources: independent channels

Upcoming catalysts

• 2026-12 RBNZ next decision — ING expects 25bp hike; market ~22bp priced
• 2026-12 BoC next meeting — ~50:50 market-priced hike; ING sees next move 1Q27